tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-202586592012-01-18T14:39:53.423-05:00Analyst Reports • Articles • Company & Industry Informationhttp://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12301100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-7913648089289109162011-12-06T14:00:00.001-05:002011-12-06T14:15:32.258-05:00

The Financial Times, 6 December 2011Canada’s five biggest banks have reaped the benefits of a vast, stable retail network by reporting sizeable advances in – and, in some cases, record – earnings in their latest fiscal year.Bank of Montreal, the last of the five to publish results, reported net income on Tuesday of C$3.27bn ($3.23bn) for the year to October 31, up 16 per cent from 2010.In a

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-39274380821109595592011-12-05T09:30:00.001-05:002011-12-06T14:15:42.409-05:00

Scotia Capital, 5 December 2011• RY cash operating EPS increased 17% YOY to $1.09 per share, above our expectations of $1.06 per share and IBES consensus at $0.98 per share. Earnings were driven by record Canadian Banking earnings.• Operating ROE: 17.1%, RRWA: 2.35%, CET1: 7.7%(E).Implications• Canadian Banking earnings increased 18% YOY and 6% QOQ as the Retail NIM only declined 2 bps YOY and 1

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-42972640154326295152011-12-05T09:00:00.001-05:002011-12-06T05:59:55.498-05:00

TD Securities, 5 December 2011Last Friday before the open, the bank reported Core Cash (f.d.) EPS of $1.08 versus TD Securities at $1.09 and consensus of $1.08.ImpactSlightly positive. With some helpers, Scotia delivered a basically in line result. The results were fairly balanced across the segments; importantly, we note continued progress in the International segment consistent with our

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-60357483916586603882011-12-02T09:30:00.000-05:002011-12-04T05:16:59.196-05:00

Scotia Capital, 2 December 2011• TD operating EPS increased 28% YOY to $1.77 from $1.38 a year earlier, beating expectations due to strong results across all segments and high security gains.• Operating ROE: 14.9%, RRWA: 2.95%, CET1: 6.2%E (incl. IFRS).• Fiscal 2011 operating EPS increased 18% to $6.82 from $5.77 in 2010.Implications• Canadian P&C (TDCT) had strong earnings up 17% YOY to $905M,

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-60480019071045265162011-12-02T09:00:00.000-05:002011-12-04T05:15:07.700-05:00

Scotia Capital, 2 December 2011• CM reported operating EPS of $1.87 (excl. a $0.12 merchant banking gain and other charges of $0.08). Earnings were strong, in line with our expectations of $1.90, however, handily above consensus EPS of $1.81.• Operating ROE: 20.4%, RRWA: 2.71%, CET1: 8.1%Implications• Earnings were driven by strong results from Retail & Business Banking and Wealth Management up

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-55496251661428566122011-11-10T09:00:00.001-05:002011-11-12T19:39:35.345-05:00

Scotia Capital, 10 November 2011Event• The Financial Stability Board released the initial list of 29 global systemically important financial institutions with no Canadian banks on the list, as expected.Implications• The fact that Canadian banks are not on the list potentially strengthens their competitive positioning in the capital markets business, with RY best positioned given its broader

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-66274811678231001952011-10-24T09:00:00.000-04:002011-10-24T22:24:00.340-04:00

Scotia Capital, 24 October 2011• RY hosted an analyst and investor conference on Friday focusing on the bank's wealth management segment, RBC Wealth Management.Implications• The main theme of the conference was RY's strategic focus of becoming a global leader in wealth and asset management and achieving a very aggressive five-year objective of growing earnings to $2 billion in 2015 from $0.7

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-33866914880085530712011-09-23T09:30:00.000-04:002011-09-24T02:27:58.929-04:00

Scotia Capital, 23 September 2011• Third quarter operating earnings were modestly better than expected, increasing 16% YOY and 2% QOQ. Volatile and depressed wholesale banking results were offset by resilient retail banking earnings and strong earnings growth from both wealth management and international.Implications• Despite the challenging quarter, profitability remained strong (ROE 17.2%, RRWA

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-25452369621950406502011-09-01T17:00:00.001-04:002011-09-07T19:31:21.071-04:00

The Wall Street Journal, Caroline Van Hasselt, 1 September 2011Toronto-Dominion Bank raised its dividend for the second time this fiscal year as strong retail earnings in Canada and the U.S. helped push the lender's third-quarter profit up a better-than-expected 23%.Strong personal and commercial banking results on both sides of the border were tempered somewhat by a 40% drop in earnings from

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-63250727188381285442011-08-30T16:30:00.001-04:002011-09-07T19:29:48.494-04:00

BMO Nesbitt Burns, 30 August 2011Bank sector earnings rose by 16% year over year in the quarter ended July, about 2% more than consensus expectations. We have added to our sector weight with a percentage point in the Bank of Nova Scotia. Despite a challenging environment and higher-than-expected expense growth, BNS continues to meet, or exceed, financial targets. Operating EPS should grow at 13%

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-78216449855824739722011-08-29T09:00:00.001-04:002011-09-07T19:33:14.152-04:00

Scotia Capital, 29 August 2011• RY cash operating EPS increased 13% YOY to $1.06, slightly below expectations of $1.08. Reported cash EPS was a loss of $0.09/share.• Operating ROE: 17.0%, RRWA: 2.37%, CET1: 7.7%(E).Implications• Wholesale earnings declined 32% QOQ due to a larger-than-expected decline in trading revenue to $302M from $708M in Q2/11. Fixed income trading revenue collapsed to $71M

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-15269718540762175882011-08-28T09:00:00.001-04:002011-08-29T20:38:22.238-04:00

Citigroup Global Securities, 28 August 2011 Risk of Earnings Shortfalls Rising as Weak Macro-Economic Climate Exacerbating Pricing Mistakes at John Hancock • Maintain Sell but target lowered — We reiterate our Sell (3H) rating on MFC’s shares but have lowered our target price to C$12/US$12 and downwardly revised our 2011E-13E to C$0.65, C$1.60 and C$1.75. As one of the largest writers in the

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-4502204609253454292011-08-26T09:00:00.001-04:002011-09-07T19:33:25.906-04:00

Scotia Capital, 26 August 2011• NA cash operating EPS increased 10% YOY to $1.72 in line with expectations. Earnings were supported by extremely low PCLs of 15 bp (40+ bp for bank group) and security gains of $0.11/share or 6% of earnings. Retail earnings were up 6% YOY, with Wealth up 28% YOY and Wholesale up 13% YOY.• ROE: 17.5%, RRWA: 2.29%, CET1: 8.0%.Implications• Reported EPS was $1.84

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-61159457890428077272011-08-24T09:00:00.001-04:002011-09-07T19:33:39.648-04:00

Scotia Capital, 24 August 2011• BMO cash operating EPS increased 19% to $1.36 per share, beating our expectation of $1.30 per share and IBES consensus of $1.31 per share, aided by tax recovery, partially offset by weaker insurance revenue.Implications• BMO Capital Markets earnings were stronger than expected due to tax recovery, as well as trading revenue held up better than U.S. Bank results,

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-36114125614488136692011-08-15T18:00:00.000-04:002011-08-15T20:48:42.137-04:00

The Wall Street Journal, Caroline Van Hasselt, 15 August 2011 Toronto-Dominion Bank has quietly launched an assault south of the border, hungry for growth opportunities that have dried up in its home country. Canada's second-largest bank by assets now has 1,285 retail branches in the U.S., compared with 1,131 in Canada. TD's retail-banking unit is the 10th-largest in the U.S., bulking up with

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-9340385039394020202011-08-09T09:00:00.001-04:002011-08-11T03:52:20.563-04:00

Scotia Capital, 9 August 2011 Banks and Systemic Risk/U.S. Downgrade in a Fragile Market – Revisit Capital Markets Impact to Canada/Bank Downgrades in 1992 • S&P downgraded U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Friday August 5, 2011, placing additional stress on global markets and increasing overall systemic risk. Bank stocks in general do not do well with heightened systemic risk: however.

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-24783094572206979732011-05-11T01:00:00.000-04:002011-05-11T04:19:23.243-04:00

The Wall Street Journal, Robin Sidel & Caroline Van Hasselt, 11 May 2011For sale: lots of bad loans, 430 bank branches in many second-tier cities and a tendency to lose money.That is the hard truth behind Royal Bank of Canada's effort to sell its U.S. operations known as RBC Bank. The largest Canadian lender by assets has attracted prospective bidders for the business despite RBC Bank's raft of

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-52229401808387063422011-03-09T09:00:00.001-05:002011-03-09T16:38:53.060-05:00

Scotia Capital, 9 March 2011Bank First Quarter Earnings – Recovery Jump Starts – Blow-Out• Canadian banks produced a blow-out quarter, jump starting the earnings recovery cycle after 18 months of grinding through a credit overhang and a low growth economic recovery. First quarter earnings increased 18% YOY and 23% sequentially, much higher than expected. RY produced the largest beat (see Exhibit

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-60721301234933222842011-03-08T17:00:00.000-05:002011-03-09T16:29:54.359-05:00

The Wall Street Journal, Caroline Van Hasselt, 8 March 2011Bank of Nova Scotia capped off a solid first-quarter earnings season for Canada's biggest banks by posting a record first-quarter profit after sharply reducing credit-loss provisions in its domestic and international banking units.Scotiabank, as it is known, also raised its quarterly dividend by 6%, becoming the second of the five big

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-31009668775631158212011-03-04T09:30:00.001-05:002011-03-05T03:01:02.038-05:00

TD Securities, 4 March 2011Investment Thesis. After a series of muddled quarters, Royal came through with a solid well rounded result. To us, this quarter is a truer reflection of what we believe to be the underlying earnings power of the platform. With better evidence in hand, we increased our operating outlook coming out of the quarter.We continue to view Royal as a solid banking franchise and

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-15955394544931635102011-03-03T09:00:00.002-05:002011-03-05T02:49:30.834-05:00

Financial Times, Bernard Simon, 3 March 2011Canada’s two biggest financial institutions, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion, reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits on Thursday, with TD lifting its dividend for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis.RBC’s earnings hit a record C$1.84bn (US$1.89bn) in the three months to January 31, up 23 per cent from a year

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-91739999987945008272011-03-02T09:00:00.000-05:002011-03-03T02:27:05.525-05:00

Scotia Capital, 2 March 2011• BMO cash operating EPS increased 17% to $1.32, in line. Earnings were driven by very solid results with P&C Canada earnings increasing 10%, Private Client increasing 38% (21% excluding insurance), and BMO Capital Markets increasing 21% with P&C the U.S. earnings weak, declining 15%. Trading revenue was the fourth best quarter ever.• Underlying earnings were stronger

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-5483233780981270552011-02-25T09:30:00.000-05:002011-02-26T03:15:59.181-05:00

Scotia Capital, 25 February 2011• CIBC (CM) cash operating EPS increased 19% YOY to $1.97, significantly above expectations due to very strong wholesale earnings, higher retail, and lower LLPs. Wholescale earnings were slightly higher than the strong Q1/10 and almost triple Q4/10. Underwriting and advisory fees were up significantly with trading revenue solid.• Operating ROE: 24.0%, RRWA: 2.89%,

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-54291186511397341452011-02-25T09:00:00.000-05:002011-02-26T03:14:11.224-05:00

Scotia Capital, 25 February 2011• NA cash operating earnings increased 16% YOY to $1.80 per share above expectations.• Operating ROE: 19.0%, RRWA: 2.37% Tier 1 Capital: 14.6%.Implications• Earnings were driven by strong Retail and Wealth Management earnings and higher security gains. Volume growth was strong at 7% with revenue growth of 7% and expenses increasing 4% for positive operating

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-38936584804765188442011-02-18T09:30:00.000-05:002011-02-19T00:02:54.710-05:00

Scotia Capital, 18 February 2011Banks Begin Reporting February 24• Banks begin reporting first quarter earnings with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and National Bank (NA) on February 24, followed by Bank of Montreal (BMO) on March 1, Canadian Western (CWB) (after market close) on March 2, Royal Bank (RY) and Toronto-Dominion (TD) on March 3, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) on March 8, and

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-57971315778096322292011-02-16T16:30:00.000-05:002011-02-17T21:43:03.873-05:00

Scotia Capital, 16 February 2011• The Canadian Bank index is poised to hit a new all time high surpassing the previous high reached in May 2007. The bank index hit another 52-week high yesterday and is only 3% below the all time high.• TD, BNS, NA, and LB recently reached new all-time highs. Individual bank share price performance versus their highs seems to be correlated with earnings

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-47619164123482105752011-02-11T09:30:00.000-05:002011-02-12T20:31:00.596-05:00

Scotia Capital, 11 February 2011Event• The incremental cost of hedging more equity market and interest rate risk of C$0.08 per share garnered a disproportionate amount of attention compared to decent underlying trends in the business and the substantial reduction in risk exposure.Implications• We estimate base line run-rate earnings on a normalized basis of C$1.50 per share, including incremental

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-84006604640983794112011-02-11T09:00:00.002-05:002011-02-12T20:29:29.056-05:00

Scotia Capital, 11 February 2011Event• GWO's Q4/10 reported EPS of C0.54 per share included non-operating items which, in total, added C$0.09 per share, resulting in adjusted EPS of C$0.45, below our estimate of C$0.48, and consensus of C$0.51. Results varied from strong (U.S.) to mixed (Canada) to weak (Europe).Implications• While we were not surprised by the asset impairment provision in Europe

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-71626371229031259662011-02-03T17:30:00.000-05:002011-02-05T02:21:47.912-05:00

Bloomberg, Sean B. Pasternak, 3 February 2011Toronto-Dominion Bank Chief Executive Officer Edmund Clark came to Wall Street this week with a simple recipe for bankers trying to avert another financial crisis: more transparency and less arrogance.“Hubris is the biggest risk in the banking system,” Clark said in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “It is the most dangerous emotion

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-81575463185339361832010-12-22T01:00:00.000-05:002010-12-22T03:10:12.955-05:00

Bloomberg, Sean B. Pasternak, 22 December 2010Toronto-Dominion Bank may continue to make acquisitions in the U.S. after increasing its bet there with the $6.3 billion purchase of Chrysler Financial Corp., capping a record quarter for U.S. takeovers by Canadian lenders.Toronto-Dominion’s bid for the auto-finance company “doesn’t really alter” the Toronto-based bank’s appetite for smaller

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-32271287290552682012010-12-18T01:00:00.002-05:002010-12-22T03:12:56.670-05:00

The Wall Street Journal, David Reilly, 18 December 2010Bank of Montreal's acquisition of Marshall & Isley may signal the start of a hoped-for wave of regional bank consolidation. But others shouldn't follow its lead when it comes to price.BMO is buying M&I for $4.1 billion, equivalent to a 33% premium over the prior day's close for a bank hit hard by the financial crisis. M&I has yet to pay back

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-29268244426117625392010-12-06T09:30:00.001-05:002010-12-12T20:31:25.448-05:00

Scotia Capital, 6 December 2010• RY cash operating EPS declined 20% YOY to $0.84, significantly below expectations due to weak Wholesale and International Banking results. Operating ROE: 13.5%, RRWA: 1.85%, Tier 1 Capital: 13.0%.Implications• Reported cash EPS was $0.76 per share including a $116M after-tax or $0.08 per share loss on the announced sale of Liberty Life.• Fiscal 2010 operating EPS

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-85267523577821705182010-12-03T09:30:00.000-05:002010-12-04T03:04:22.140-05:00

Scotia Capital, 2 December 2010TD Q4/10 Earnings Miss - Higher Expenses• TD operating EPS declined 5% to $1.38, below expectations, due to lower-than-expected earnings from Canadian P&C (TDCT) as a result of high operating expenses including non-recurring items.Implications• TD recorded strong retail earnings with TDCT earnings up 24% YOY and U.S. P&C up 34%, which were offset by Wealth

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-34054747239739470862010-12-03T09:00:00.000-05:002010-12-04T03:02:45.289-05:00

TD Securities, 3 December 2010Q4/10: Another Good Quarter; See More Upside in RetailYesterday before the open, the bank reported Core Cash FD-EPS of C$1.68 versus TD Newcrest at C$1.57 and Consensus at C$1.63.ImpactPositive. The bank reported better than expected numbers on the back of good Retail and good Credit; earning through some weakness in Wholesale and elevated expenses. We are very

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-39206478699382136352010-12-01T09:30:00.001-05:002010-12-04T03:01:21.917-05:00

Scotia Capital, 2 December 2010Q4/10 Strong Earnings - 6.5% Dividend Increase• NA reported a 17% increase in operating EPS to $1.63 in line with our estimate but above consensus of $1.57. NA announced a 6.5% annual dividend increase to $2.64, slightly below our 10% increase estimate.Implications• Earnings were driven by strong retail earnings, which increased 34% YOY and Wealth Management, which

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-88790792482997869542010-11-17T09:30:00.000-05:002010-11-23T03:30:34.892-05:00

Scotia Capital, 17 November 2010Banks Begin Reporting November 30 – Earnings Sluggish• Banks begin reporting fourth quarter earnings with National Bank (NA) on November 30 (after market close), followed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto-Dominion (TD) on December 2, Royal Bank (RY) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) on December 3, Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Canadian Western (CWB)

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-39228536121409004972010-10-28T16:00:00.002-04:002010-11-05T02:16:10.915-04:00

Scotia Capital, 28 October 2010Royal Bank Investor Day - Canadian Banking• Royal Bank (RY) held an Investor Day yesterday focusing on its Canadian Banking segment. The bank highlighted its track record of outperformance and leading market position, breadth of distribution network and cross-sell ability, and operational efficiency as key areas for the bank in light of the potential for slower

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-68536615276516521082010-10-01T09:30:00.000-04:002010-10-02T03:37:49.746-04:00

BMO Capital Markets, 1 October 2010Scotiabank has been upgraded to Outperform, while Royal Bank’s rating slipped to Market Perform. Greater clarity on new bank capital rules has mitigated our concern they would hinder BNS’s international growth strategy. Moreover, we believe that the bank’s international operations provide a clear growth path, relative to its peer group, after credit costs have `

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-14395096939297328492010-09-18T08:00:00.003-04:002010-09-19T12:00:44.181-04:00

Barron's, Sandra Ward, 18 September 2010Hard to believe amid all the hand-wringing about the direction of the economy and the markets, but day trading is alive and well.A healthy number of individuals continue to indulge a passion for buying and selling stocks, and options and futures on those stocks, on a daily basis, in spite of the continued exodus from actively managed stock mutual funds and

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-54011076624500977602010-09-13T09:30:00.001-04:002010-09-13T11:22:44.751-04:00

Scotia Capital, 13 September 2010Event• Canadian banks' third quarter operating earnings were disappointing, missing earnings estimates, the first quarterly miss of the earnings recovery cycle. ROE: 15.9%, RRWA: 2.06%, Tier 1: 12.8%.Implications• The major collapse in trading revenue from record levels a year earlier cut wholesale earnings in half. Trading revenue as a percentage of total revenue

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-18194863923935515472010-09-03T16:00:00.002-04:002010-09-03T20:45:47.342-04:00

Scotia Capital, 3 September 2010Event• TD operating EPS declined 2% to $1.43, in line with expectations.Implications• Earnings were solid, driven by a strong performance at Canadian P&C (TDCT) with earnings up 24% YOY, followed by U.S. P&C up 19%, and Wealth Management up 10%, offset by a 45% decline in Wholesale. The bank viewed the Wholesale, earnings decline as normalization. The major

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-61904589553814170242010-09-01T16:00:00.001-04:002010-09-02T03:20:44.127-04:00

TD Securities, 1 September 2010Investment Thesis. The quarter was largely inline with updated expectations in terms of the bottom-line number and key themes.Domestic Retail turned in another good quarter despite softer margins on good volumes and improving credit. Overall, credit came on much better than expected. Wholesale was soft, but not materially disappointing relative to reduced

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-76922069663677311782010-08-27T16:30:00.001-04:002010-08-31T01:44:57.908-04:00

• BMO cuts price target to C$53 from C$63; rating outperform• CIBC cuts price target to C$56 from C$62; rating sector performer • KBW cuts price target by C$2 to C$58; rating outperform• Macquarie cuts target price to C$56 from C$60; rating neutral• UBS cuts price target to C$66 from C$68; rating buy__________________________________________________________ Scotia Capital, 27 August 2010Event•

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-9553173833657313432010-08-27T16:00:00.001-04:002010-08-31T01:43:18.365-04:00

• BMO raises target price to C$71 from C$70; rating outperform• Canaccord Genuity raises price target to C$69 from C$68• Credit Suisse raises target price to C$69 from C$68• Macquarie cuts price to C$67 from C$68; rating neutral• RBC raises price target to C$74 from C$71; rating sector perform.__________________________________________________________ Scotia Capital, 27 August 2010Event• NA

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-24981262936918246482010-08-27T13:00:00.001-04:002010-08-31T01:39:46.578-04:00

Thomson Reuters, 27 August 2010Canada's banks appear set to handily absorb stiffer global capital and liquidity rules being developed by the Basel banking committee, meaning they could soon begin raising dividends and making acquisitions.While the new regulations won't be released until November, the CEOs of Canada's big six banks have begun speaking more confidently about their ability to adopt

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-51184974643967165532010-08-26T16:30:00.000-04:002010-08-27T03:15:44.194-04:00

Scotia Capital, 26 August 2010Event• CIBC (CM) reported an increase in cash operating earnings of 22% YOY to $1.66 per share beating expectations due to surprisingly strong trading revenue/wholesale earnings and slightly higher security gains. Operating ROE was 21.5% with RRWA of 2.39%.Implications• Wholesale Banking operating earnings declined 33% YOY to $123 million, but remained surprisingly

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-73610402421948635752010-08-25T16:00:00.001-04:002010-08-26T03:26:36.442-04:00

Scotia Capital, 25 August 2010Event• BMO cash operating EPS increased 9% to $1.14, below our estimate of $1.20 and consensus of $1.21. Earnings were lower-than-expected due to extremely weak trading revenue and lower security gains, partially offset by lower than expected LLPs. Operating ROE was 13.9%.Implications• Positives for the quarter were credit and strong operating results in core

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-45338040222636636522010-08-19T16:00:00.002-04:002010-08-20T02:24:07.312-04:00

Credit Suisse, 19 August 2010As Canadian bank earnings/returns on equity (ROE) benefit from declining credit charges, slowing revenue growth represents a headwind.We forecast provisions for credit losses (PCLs) to decline 35% and 36% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, providing a substantial boost to group profitability. However, as this earnings/ROE driver loses momentum, the onus falls on revenue

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-45553429434574111882010-08-12T16:00:00.001-04:002010-08-14T16:03:46.114-04:00

Scotia Capital, 12 August 2010Banks Begin Reporting Third Quarter Earnings August 24 - Uninspiring• Banks begin reporting third quarter earnings with Bank of Montreal (BMO) on August 24, followed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) on August 25, Royal Bank (RY) and National Bank (NA) on August 26, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) on August 31, Canadian Western (CWB) on September 1 (after market

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-15743827585590826932010-08-05T16:00:00.001-04:002010-08-11T20:51:31.225-04:00

Citigroup Global Markets, 5 August 20102Q10 a miss – Operating EPS of (C$1.36) compared unfavorably to 2Q09 EPS of C$1.09, and was well below our estimate of $0.00 and FC of (C$0.62). While disappointing, we did not find much during our initial review of the results with respect to business line performance that came as a surprise in terms of sales or underwriting trends. But, Canadian GAAP

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-78544673782558719992010-07-28T09:00:00.000-04:002010-07-29T15:48:43.646-04:00

Scotia Capital, 28 July 2010• The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision reached broad agreement July 26, 2010 on the overall design of the capital and liquidity reform package including definition of capital, the treatment of counterparty credit risk, the leverage ratio, and the global liquidity standard.• In general, the agreement seems to provide a more balanced and constructive approach to

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-60508033503914908292010-04-16T23:00:00.000-04:002010-04-17T03:42:42.483-04:00

The Wall Street Journal, Robin Sidel, 16 April 2010Canada's TD Bank Financial Group, accelerating its march on the U.S. banking industry, gobbled up the operations of three failed institutions in Florida.Regulators also seized two small banks in Michigan and Massachusetts, representing the first bank failures of the year in those two states. So far this year, 47 banks have failed in the U.S.In

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-62943260327329036522010-03-19T09:30:00.000-04:002010-03-20T02:48:06.925-04:00

Scotia Capital, 19 March 2010Strong Earnings, Ahead of Market Expectations• Canadian banks reported another quarter of strong operating results. Bank earnings again exceeded Street expectations for the fourth straight quarter, thus further confirming that the bottom in operating earnings this cycle was Q2/09, which coincided with what we believe was peak quarterly loan loss provisions. Operating

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-44590475548647944722010-03-05T09:30:00.001-05:002010-03-05T15:31:38.471-05:00

Scotia Capital, 5 March 2010• TD reported an increase of 26% YOY to operating earnings of $1.60 per share, above expectations. Earnings were better than expected due to strong results from Canadian P&C and Wholesale Banking with credit quality stable. ROE was 15.5% with RRWA very high at 2.88%.Implications• Canadian P&C earnings were a record, increasing 23% YOY with revenue growth of 11% aided

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-61542974496088124482010-03-04T09:30:00.002-05:002010-03-05T15:32:38.065-05:00

Scotia Capital, 4 March 2010RY cash operating earnings declined 16% YOY to $1.03 per share, in line with expectations. Operating ROE was 18.0% with RRWA of 2.32%.Implications• Earnings were driven by strong Canadian Banking results with wholesale earnings resilient. Credit quality improved in the quarter with lower loan loss provisions and lower gross impaired loan formations. Partially

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-5016184312832402722010-02-26T09:30:00.003-05:002010-02-27T05:32:31.245-05:00

Scotia Capital, 26 February 2010• CM reported a decline in cash operating earnings of 1% to $1.65 per share above our estimate and consensus due to higher net interest margin and stronger-than-expected results from wholesale with trading revenue flat QOQ. ROE was 22.5% with RRWA of 2.21%.Implications• CIBC Retail Markets earnings declined 9% YOY to $529M due mainly to loan loss provisions

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-68099785669340209122010-02-26T09:00:00.002-05:002010-02-27T05:31:31.532-05:00

Veritas Investment Research, 26 February 2010On first glance and deeper inspection, it is hard to find too many noteworthy aspects of the National’s solid & steady first quarter. Earnings were in line with Veritas’ expectations, which were themselves slightly above the consensus view. The quarter unfolded pretty much according to script: trading revenues normalized but didn’t melt away, while

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-13241984062092939342010-02-18T16:00:00.001-05:002010-02-19T03:48:22.537-05:00

Scotia Capital, 18 February 2010Banks Begin Reporting February 25• Banks begin reporting first quarter earnings with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and National Bank (NA) on February 25, followed by Bank of Montreal (BMO) on March 2, Royal Bank (RY) and Laurentian Bank (LB) on March 3, Canadian Western (CWB) and Toronto Dominion (TD) on March 4, and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) closing out

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-68140645027787988552010-01-30T09:00:00.004-05:002010-03-20T02:51:19.661-04:00

National Post, Theresa Tedesco, 30 January 2010The National Post investigates the impact of the global financial turmoil inside Manulife Financial Corp., Canada's most venerable life insurance company. The Post's examination reveals the drama behind the closed doors of the boardroom, the tense battle between the country's financial watchdog and Manulife's formidable former chief executive, and

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-22272763961081209962010-01-29T08:00:00.004-05:002010-02-04T20:05:18.432-05:00

The Financial Times, Chrystia Freeland, 29 January 2010There’s something about Canada that inspires gentle mockery from foreigners, especially those who live south of the border. Kelly Ripa, the co-host of a popular US talk show, this month engaged in an extended on-air riff with her husband (don’t ask) about the absurdity of Canadian place names; Regina came in for a particular beating. South

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-87394022710033306382010-01-27T09:30:00.001-05:002010-01-30T02:57:50.561-05:00

Scotia Capital, 27 January 2010• The following are excerpts from our full report titled "Canada's Dividend Culture".• The main risk currently, in our opinion, to the Canadian banking industry and bank valuation is “regulatory” in terms of over-regulation and mis-regulation. The major uncertainty is what operating and financial constraints will be placed on banks by the regulator. We believe that

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-26530107432139635602010-01-11T09:30:00.002-05:002010-01-11T17:54:26.556-05:00

Scotia Capital, 11 January 2010TSX Insurance over TSX Banks. Insurance stocks have underperformed Banks by roughly 40% in the last 12-months. More recently, however, the Insurance sector has easily outperformed, posting a gain of 12.9% in the last month versus -1.2% for the TSX Banks index. We believe Insurance will continue to outperform Banks in coming months as LT yields move up and the yield

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-34924693793942038842009-12-11T09:30:00.000-05:002009-12-14T18:00:22.877-05:00

Scotia Capital, 14 December 2009Event• We are downgrading the Canadian banks to marketweight from overweight due to their strong absolute and relative share price performance in 2009 and increased regulatory/political risk.• Bank stocks have doubled off their 2009 lows and are up 51% year-to-date outperforming the TSX by 23% thus far in 2009.Implications• Banks just finished reporting strong Q4/

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-54123232407750628362009-12-09T09:30:00.003-05:002009-12-14T17:44:31.481-05:00

TD Securities, 9 December 2009Yesterday before market open, the bank reported core cash FD-EPS of C$0.89 vs TD Newcrest of C$0.86 and Consensus of C$0.87.ImpactSlightly positive. Not one of the strongest results this season. However, key credit trends came in well below expectations with PCLs at C$420 million (vs TD Newcrest at C$505 million). Domestic continues to perform with good margin

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-49927659605684310372009-12-07T09:00:00.001-05:002009-12-07T19:55:45.652-05:00

Scotia Capital, 7 December 2009RY cash operating EPS increased 4% YOY to $1.06/share in line with our estimate and slightly above consensus. Operating ROE was 18.9%, with RRWA of 2.45% and Tier 1 Capital at 13.0%. Fiscal 2009 EPS was $4.45, an increase of 4% from $4.30 per share in 2008.Implications• Canadian Banking earnings increased 6% YOY. Insurance earnings declined 25% YOY with Wealth

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-78537301650625840492009-12-04T09:30:00.002-05:002009-12-04T20:56:43.341-05:00

Scotia Capital, 4 December 2009Q4/09 - Strong Results, Better Than Expected• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) fourth quarter operating earnings were strong, driven by record wholesale banking earnings, solid earnings at TDCT, partially offset by weak results from U.S. P&C and Wealth Management. Credit quality remained relatively stable.• ROE was 14.3% with RRWA of 2.63%.• TD’s cash operating earnings

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-59284867851888100182009-12-04T09:00:00.001-05:002009-12-04T20:53:40.097-05:00

TD Securities, 4 December 2009Yesterday, the bank reported core cash FD-EPS of C$1.41 vs. TD Newcrest at C$1.25 and consensus at C$1.33.ImpactPositive. The bank turned in a solid quarter as credit trends improved, which helped to deliver strong retail profits. One quarter is not a trend, but it is consistent with our suspicion that operating trends could start to build through 2010 as credit

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-17551565004567796032009-12-04T08:30:00.000-05:002009-12-04T20:18:27.277-05:00

Scotia Capital, 4 December 2009• National Bank of Canada (NA) fourth quarter operating earnings increased 3% YOY to $1.40 per share, below expectations. Operating earnings were lower than expected due to negative sequential swing of $0.18 per share from securitization, lower security gains of $0.04 per share, and other charges of $0.12 per share as well as higher-than-expected salaries & benefits

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-84075666500026003922009-11-25T16:00:00.000-05:002009-11-27T17:19:55.699-05:00

Scotia Capital, 25 November 2009Q4/09 - Earnings Very Strong - Large Beat• Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported a 4% decline in cash operating earnings to $1.13 per share, in line with our estimate but significantly above consensus of $0.96 per share. Operating ROE was 14.2% with Tier 1 at 12.2%. This is the first clean quarter since the financial crisis began.• Fiscal 2009 operating earnings declined

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-54348337089138403852009-11-06T09:30:00.000-05:002009-11-06T12:19:32.210-05:00

Scotia Capital, 6 November 2009Q3/09 Misses but Underlying EPS in Line• A miss on larger reserve hits than expected (interest and lapse related) - but underlying EPS in line. As expected Q3/09 was noisy. Details are outlined in Exhibit 1. We were relatively impressed that the underlying EPS was in line with our estimate, and was 4% higher QOQ than the underlying EPS of $0.48 in Q2/09. Credit hits

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-73128851733557233042009-11-06T09:00:00.001-05:002009-11-06T12:16:56.068-05:00

Scotia Capital, 6 November 2009Q3/09 Misses on Credit - Significantly lowering EPS• A miss, once again on larger credit hits than expected. A noisy quarter, with credit hits $0.10 higher than expected and the gain from equity markets $0.07 less than expected.• Underlying EPS somewhere between $0.67 and $0.72 - our estimate was $0.72. Details are shown in Exhibit 1. SLF management suggests the

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-29089703428192728222009-11-06T08:30:00.001-05:002009-11-06T12:16:40.273-05:00

Scotia Capital, 6 November 2009• EPS of $0.47, vs. our $0.43 estimate. In line with consensus of $0.48.Implications• Unlike the other big lifecos, GWO's limited equity market sensitivity and minimal interest rate sensitivity once again resulted in a fairly steady quarter - $0.04 above our estimate and $0.01 below consensus - underlying EPS at $0.49 in line with our estimate.• Sales momentum

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-58216107941006568302009-11-02T09:00:00.001-05:002009-11-02T16:16:45.260-05:00

Barron's, Dimitra Defotis, 2 November 2009A Canadian native likes to give this quiz to his u.s. friends: What's the most boring word in investing? Answer: "Canadian." How can you make it even more boring? Put the word "banks" behind it.But boring can be beautiful, especially when trouble erupts.Yes, the shares of banks in the Great White North were badly bruised during last year's global meltdown

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-64922862094313140222009-10-26T07:00:00.002-04:002009-11-02T16:16:58.733-05:00

Financial Post, John Greenwood, 26 Octber 2009Like their peers around the world, Canadian banks got clobbered on stock markets as the financial crisis raged. But as the gloom cleared, their shares -- unlike those of many foreign banks that had the misfortune of owning toxic credit investments -- rocketed skyward, leading the way in one of the most spectacular stock market rallies in decades.By

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-61271175711213570702009-10-24T08:00:00.002-04:002009-11-02T16:17:07.694-05:00

The Toronto Star, Rita Trichur, 24 October 2009Inside Toronto-Dominion Bank's corporate headquarters, its secret code name is "Bravo." But on the streets of Brampton, folks are calling it the "branch of the future."Canada's second-largest bank has chosen this fast-growing GTA city as the testing ground for a daring new experiment that is set to revolutionize personal banking in this country.Its

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-63769799034222608472009-10-19T16:00:00.001-04:002009-10-22T21:17:07.934-04:00

Scotia Capital, 19 October 2009Canadian Lifecos – Another Noisy Quarter – Economic Backdrop Improving – Valuations Remain Very Attractive• Another quarter with a lot of moving parts. As was the case in Q2/09, we expect the continued rebound in equity markets in Q3/09 will be offset to some extent by reserve increases, primarily related to declining long-term corporate rates, but also due to

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-48435196609030311792009-10-08T09:00:00.001-04:002009-10-08T17:51:41.836-04:00

Bloomberg, Matt Walcoff and Sean B. Pasternak, 8 October 2009For Canada’s banks, it’s almost as if the financial crisis never happened.The Chart of the Day shows bank stocks in Canada’s Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index have recouped almost all of their losses since Aug. 8, 2007, the day before credit markets began seizing up. The nine stocks in the bank index trade at 91 percent of their

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-69450281636996665482009-09-15T16:00:00.001-04:002009-09-15T18:28:19.100-04:00

Scotia Capital, 15 September 2009Earnings Stellar – Inflection Point – Outlook Improving• Canadian banks reported stellar third quarter earnings, substantially better than Street estimates. This was the third straight quarter of beating estimates, but it was by far the largest beat. Based on the strength of third quarter earnings it appears that Q2/09 was the bottom for the cycle on an operating

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-38955994671714130542009-09-01T16:00:00.000-04:002009-09-03T17:41:47.357-04:00

BMO Capital Markets, 1 September 2009For the quarter ended July, the Canadian bank sector reported operating earnings that were roughly unchanged from a year ago, compared to Street expectations of a double-digit percent decline. Much better-than-expected trading revenues, and to a lesser extent smaller-than-expected loan loss provisions, keyed the upside surprise. We are adding to our bank

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-48781836205568850312009-08-29T04:30:00.004-04:002009-09-15T18:28:51.636-04:00

Toronto Star, Rita Trichur, 28 August 2009It doesn't take long to figure out what makes Bill Downe tick.Minutes into a talk with him, the Bank of Montreal's president and chief executive officer pitches me on switching my mortgage to his bank. He tells his public relations chief to make a note of my renewal date. Midway through a talk with him, he brings it up again."In fact, I'm hoping after

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-44415723370278222282009-08-28T16:15:00.001-04:002009-08-28T16:23:05.181-04:00

Scotia Capital, 28 August 2009Q3/09 - Strong Results - TD Securities Record Earnings - Upgrading to 2-Sector Perform• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) third quarter operating earnings were strong, driven by record wholesale banking earnings, and record earnings at TDCT, partially offset by weak results from U.S. P&C with Wealth Management earnings down YOY but rebounding sequentially. Loan loss

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-12766928442643100082009-08-28T16:00:00.002-04:002009-08-28T16:01:18.541-04:00

Scotia Capital, 28 August 2009Earnings Estimate and Target Price• We are increasing our 2009 and 2010 earnings estimate to $4.40 per share and $4.80 per share from $4.15 per share and $4.65 per share, respectively due to strength in its core earnings particularly in Capital Markets.• We are increasing our 12-month share price target to $75 from $65, representing 17.0x our 2009 earnings estimate

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-12283968546032997242009-08-28T15:30:00.000-04:002009-08-28T15:58:38.852-04:00

Scotia Capital, 28 August 2009• National Bank (NA) operating earnings increased 17% to $1.79 per share, substantially above expectations. Operating ROE was 22.2% with RRWA of 1.99%. Reported earnings were $1.78 per share including a $1 million after-tax or $0.01 per share charge related to holding ABCP.Implications• NA third quarter earnings were extremely strong driven by record results from the

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-21154202165943996102009-08-27T17:00:00.001-04:002009-08-27T18:02:29.965-04:00

Scotia Capital, 27 August 2009Q3/09 Earnings Weak, Higher Loan Losses, Revenue Challenged• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) third quarter earnings were disappointing due to significant deterioration in credit quality and spike in loan losses that overshadowed the improvement in the net interest margin and strong capital ratio. In addition, the bank disclosed that it is facing a potential

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-19503825871670379472009-08-26T16:00:00.001-04:002009-08-27T17:48:24.207-04:00

TD Securities, 26 August 2009Looking for a C$1.00 run rate; modest ROE. There were a few gives/takes on the quarter (see Exhibit 5). We are increasingly reluctant to look through general reserves here (given we are in the midst of a credit downturn, and coverage ratios at BMO are thin). We see Q3/09 at C$0.95 and remain comfortable with our C$4.00 number for 2010. However, this still implies a

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-29923823470419278572009-08-18T16:00:00.000-04:002009-08-18T16:39:48.814-04:00

Scotia Capital, 18 August 2009Banks Begin Reporting August 25• Banks begin reporting third quarter earnings with Bank of Montreal (BMO) on August 25, followed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) on August 26, National Bank (NA), Toronto Dominion (TD), and Royal Bank (RY) on August 27, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) on August 28, and Laurentian Bank (LB) and Canadian Western (CWB) closing out

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-18200585445075912542009-08-14T19:04:00.002-04:002009-08-17T19:24:57.112-04:00

The Globe and Mail, Tara Perkins, 14 August 2009The good news: Royal Bank of Canada escaped the Big Red Blush. Canada's largest bank never fell head over heels for subprime mortgages, nor was it seduced into any of the other risky trysts that have been coming back to haunt banks around the world since the financial crisis began.So why did RBC's latest quarter produce the bank's first loss in 15

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-83515803103033816272009-08-07T16:30:00.000-04:002009-08-08T02:05:14.260-04:00

Scotia Capital, 7 August 2009Event• MFC reported $1.09 EPS, versus our $0.45 estimate and consensus of $0.70. Dividend was cut 50% as part of MFC's plan to build "fortress" capital levels.Implications• 50% dividend cut was very disappointing - it's now up to MFC to prove it can service this capital better and that a reduced dividend is a better long-term value proposition. At least the dividend

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-55057444899224722572009-08-07T16:00:00.000-04:002009-08-08T02:05:36.749-04:00

Scotia Capital, 7 August 2009Event• EPS was $1.05, beating our $0.95 estimate and consensus of $0.89.Implications• Credit hits continue to hurt EPS. SLF's track record in this regard has been extremely poor, in our opinion. Total credit hits in Q2/09 were $0.78 EPS, well above our $0.39 estimate.• A very noisy Q2/09; we'd peg underlying EPS in line with our $0.72 estimate and underlying ROE at

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-47665144715447516772009-08-07T15:30:00.000-04:002009-08-08T01:55:20.309-04:00

TD Securities, 7 August 2009Impact – Neutral; Target Increases on Roll forward a QuarterEPS ex an unusual item was $0.47 vs. our $0.50 estimate and consensus of $0.49. On a normalized basis (see Exhibit 1) we derive EPS of $0.57 vs. our $0.58 estimate. The focus going into Q2/09 was twofold: (1) credit, which was slightly worse than we expected; and (2) Putnam, which had another challenging

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-6176787917700660192009-08-05T17:00:00.001-04:002009-08-05T21:53:12.039-04:00

Scotia Capital, 5 August 2009Banks - Rating Changes• We have changed our ratings on a number of banks. We have changed BMO and CM and downgraded NA.• Bank rating changes are: upgrading BMO to 1-Sector Outperform from 2-Sector Perform, upgrading CIBC to 2-Sector Perform from 3-Sector Underperform and downgrading NA to 3-Sector Underperform from 2-Sector Perform.BMO - Upgrading to 1-Sector

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-43226744825136386042009-07-31T18:00:00.001-04:002009-08-14T18:52:59.878-04:00

Bloomberg, Lisa Kassenaar, 31 July 2009Deep among the pine forests of rural Quebec lies a private estate the size of Manhattan, a refuge where French President Nicolas Sarkozy has gone to relax.Former U. S. presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton have played golf here, on 18 meticulously groomed holes with a bright-yellow cottage for respite at the 13th tee. Pheasant shoots are orchestrated

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-54212895514701714282009-07-29T17:00:00.001-04:002009-07-30T03:00:53.463-04:00

Scotia Capital, 29 July 2009P/E Recovery to Continue• Canadian banks are turning in a spectacular year thus far in terms of share price performance with the bank index up 42% year-to-date and up 90% from the late February lows. The P/E multiple has recovered from the low 6.0x (valuation contagion U.S. pricing of Canadian bank stocks) in late February to the current 11.6x on LTM operating earnings

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-14309308143859345272009-07-20T17:00:00.005-04:002009-07-22T01:14:57.251-04:00

Scotia Capital, 20 July 2009Canadian Lifecos – A Noisy Quarter Expected – Focus Remains on Credit – Capital Positions Very Strong• Lots of moving parts this quarter. A sharp increase in equity markets quarter over quarter (QOQ) combined with continued uncertainty in credit conditions could lead to a noisy Q2/09 for the lifecos. Manulife has suggested that all of the gains from the rebound in

http://financialsector.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20258659.post-86983307869546895122009-07-10T16:00:00.000-04:002009-07-10T16:27:24.486-04:00

Scotia Capital, 10 July 2009• Following yesterday's MFC lunch, we met with CEO Don Guloien.• In our opinion, the lunch did a good job of clearing the air. Guloien mentioned to us in our subsequent meeting he was amazed that a sell-side only meeting held June 25 "produced" everything from a dividend cut to an equity raise when nothing suggesting anything of the sort was ever mentioned (in our

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USA Today, David J. Lynch, 5 July 2009Our northern neighbor sometimes seems so similar to the United States that it's hard to tell where the USA ends and Canada begins. Here's one way: Canada is the place with healthy banks, taxpayers unscathed by megabillion-dollar bailouts and no need to overhaul financial regulation because it was done right the first time.As U.S. officials scramble to prevent

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Dow Jones Newswires, Monica Gutschi, 30 June 2009Canada's biggest banks may have been rated the world's soundest by the World Economic Forum, but they are still relatively small by global standards.Not one of the country's leading lenders cracked the Top 25 in The Banker's 2009 survey released Tuesday. The list was led by JP Morgan Chase & Co., which moved up from number four last year.Royal Bank

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Scotia Capital, 23 June 2009Three Separate Unrelated Events• As expected, Peter Rubenovitch will step down as CFO, and will be replaced by Michael Bell, former CFO at CIGNA. We believe Bell, 45 and an actuary, is keen and very capable, and will fit in well with the MFC culture.• Completely unrelated is an announcement from MFC that it received a notice from the OSC saying it failed to meet its

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Scotia Capital, 17 June 2009Bank Earnings Near Cyclical Bottom• Canadian banks reported strong second quarter earnings, handily beating consensus estimates. Earnings were driven by robust wholesale banking earnings, loan repricing, and securitization revenue that offset higher credit costs. Mark-to-market writedowns declined and show signs of abating further.• Operating return on equity was 17.1%

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Scotia Capital, 16 June 2009• Sun Life is buying Lincoln's U.K. operations for C$359 million cash.Implications• Virtually all of what Sun Life picks up is a runoff block of individual insurance and annuity policies, with nearly £4B of assets, about 60% of the size of Sun Life's current U.K. runoff business (£6.5B of assets, about 8% of SLF's bottom line).• Sun Life says it's $0.08-$0.10 per share

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