30 June 2009

Top 1000 World Banks 2009

  
Dow Jones Newswires, Monica Gutschi, 30 June 2009

Canada's biggest banks may have been rated the world's soundest by the World Economic Forum, but they are still relatively small by global standards.

Not one of the country's leading lenders cracked the Top 25 in The Banker's 2009 survey released Tuesday. The list was led by JP Morgan Chase & Co., which moved up from number four last year.

Royal Bank of Canada came in at number 34, while Bank of Nova Scotia was 40, Toronto-Dominion Bank was 46, Bank of Montreal was 52 and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce was 71.

However, two of the banks were included in the Top 25 of largest profits, with Royal Bank ranking 10th and TD Bank at number 24. That list was led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which moved up from number eight last year.

And CIBC fell into the list of Top 25 Largest Losses, at number 15. That list was led by Royal Bank of Scotland, with losses of $59.3 billion.

The Banker, a part of the Financial Times Group, will include the full list in its July edition.

The Top 1000 list has been published since the 1970s and ranks global banks by their capital strength. In a press release, the publication said the survery showed that the world's Top 1000 banks have had "an abysmal year."

It noted system profits fell 85.3% to $115 billion from $780.8 billion, as return on equity dropped to 2.69% from 20%.

The Banker: Top 1000 World Banks 2009.
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Financial Post, Theresa Tedesco, 24 June 2009

Canada's vaunted conservative banking culture offers its financial institutions a competitive advantage during economic downturns, but the edge they now enjoy over their global counterparts will likely disappear in about a year, says a top U.S. banker.

Robert P. Kelly, chairman and chief executive of Bank of New York Mellon, told a Toronto audience Wednesday that Canadians "should be proud" of their financial system because the "hard-core reality is that it's a system that works."

However, the 56-year-old head of the fifth-largest bank in the United States with total assets of US$220-billion, cautioned that while Canadian banks have "a huge competitive advantage right now, you have a window that'll probably last 12 to 18 months."

Mr. Kelly's comments were made during a two-hour panel discussion moderated by John Manley, former deputy prime minister, on how Canada and the United States are managing their financial systems in response to the current credit crisis.

Rick Waugh, CEO of the Bank of Nova Scotia, was the other panelist on the panel, sponsored by the Canada Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center.

Mr. Waugh told the blue-chip Bay Street audience that the "Canada brand has never been better," and acknowledged that it was a good time for the banks to take advantage of the country's favourable international reputation.

"The American model is broken and the whole world knows that," he said. "The doors are as wide open as I've ever seen. This crisis has created an opportunity and we have a leg up on the Americans."

Mr. Kelly cited three main reasons for the success of Canada's banks during the recent financial meltdown. He pointed to the "mess" in the US$18-trillion mortgage market south of the border, securitization markets that went "out of control," and a "mature, well-run and well-managed financial system" in Canada that does not exist in the United States.

For example, Mr. Kelly, a former vice-chairman at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said the United States does not have a national banking system, and while the regulatory reform package proposed by President Barack Obama last week is "largely a good thing," it still doesn't go far enough to consolidate the number of regulators and players in the industry.

For his part, Mr. Waugh credited Canada's system of "checks and balances" and "good governance" in the public and private sectors.

The head of Scotiabank, the third-largest in Canada by market capital, cited the macroeconomic policies of the Bank of Canada and regulatory oversight of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, as well as "good management" practices inside the executive offices of the banks, especially prudent risk and capital management practises, as reasons for the stable financial sector.

"The back-up systems are working even though they may be far from perfect, they are working," he told the crowd of about 125 people. "There was not one regulation that said, ‘Don't invest in subprime and don't invest in toxic assets,' and yet no financial institution here got in over their heads."

Still, Mr. Waugh predicted that shareholders will have to recalibrate their expectations because there is still a lot of deleveraging to occur.

"We are resetting a new norm. That means a lower level of absolute profitability, lower level of savings and growth rates," he warned.

While Mr. Kelly is the latest to heap praise on Canada's financial system – he joins President Obama and the Geneva-based World Economic Forum – he seemed to caution against smugness.

"Canadians are more conservative by nature and that's a competitive advantage in a downturn but it's not a competitive advantage when things are good," he said.

"Over time, don't bet against the U.S.," Mr. Kelly warned, saying there is no greater growth system than U.S. capitalism because it encourages innovation, risk-taking and the rise of the best people to the top of organizations.

"A lot of bad things have happened with the U.S. capitalist system," Mr. Kelly said. "It's good to learn from its mistakes, but what's really hard is to implement the good aspects. Canada is very well-positioned."
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23 June 2009

Analysts Cut Manulife's Q2 2009 Earnings Estimates

  
Scotia Capital, 23 June 2009

Three Separate Unrelated Events

• As expected, Peter Rubenovitch will step down as CFO, and will be replaced by Michael Bell, former CFO at CIGNA. We believe Bell, 45 and an actuary, is keen and very capable, and will fit in well with the MFC culture.

• Completely unrelated is an announcement from MFC that it received a notice from the OSC saying it failed to meet its disclosure obligations with respect to segregated fund VA risks prior to March 2009. The company has the opportunity to respond to the notice before OSC staff makes a decision whether to commence proceedings. This comes as a surprise to us and the company, as we believe MFC has continuously had the best disclosure with respect to these risks (the only North American lifeco to disclose the net amount at risk). Receipt of such notice is not a disclosable event, and it could very well be that other companies have received such notices. It's hard to speculate where this issue might go, but an immaterial fine could be construed to be a worse case scenario.

• MFC announced it expects a significant portion of the QOQ gains it'll make from the equity market rebound in Q2/09 (we had anticipated the gains would amount to $1.50-$1.60 in EPS) would be offset by increase in reserves for various items, namely due to declines in corporate long-term interest rates, increases in reserves for fewer-than-expected lapses on products, and smaller private equity gains. As such, we are taking down our Q2/09 estimate to $0.45 (in line with our Q3/09 and Q4/09 estimates of $0.48 and $0.54, respectively, which on average are a good proxy for an underlying EPS run-rate) from $1.75, essentially removing about 85% of the QOQ gain from equity markets. We suspect MFC will continue to strengthen its balance sheet in these uncertain times, and will continue to bolster its capital position. We estimate the company's MCCSR could be in the 250%+ range at Q2/09, the highest we've seen it.
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Financial Post, John Greenwood, 22 June 2009

Shares in Manulife Financial Corp. fell the most in about seven months Monday in the wake of the company's announcement Friday that recent capital markets gains may be offset by increases in reserves that it expects to make against bonds and other investment products.

Manulife shares fell $2.83, or 12.17%, from Friday to close at $20.42, their lowest level since the start of May.

In a note to clients, Credit Suisse analyst Jim Bantis said the sharp drop may be "excessive," adding it has created a buying opportunity for investors.

But Mr. Bantis cautioned that Manulife is facing possible structural changes as it works to boost capital levels that may impact return on equity.

Meanwhile, Scotia Capital analyst Tom MacKinnon slashed his second-quarter earnings estimates for the company to 45¢ a share down from $1.75 following Manulife's announcement that recent capital market gains will be offset by its efforts to bulk up on reserves.

Andre Philippe Hardy, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, also cut his second quarter forecast following the company's announcements.

The matter with the OSC will likely take some time to be resolved, he said in a note, adding he would be "surprised" if the outcome is detrimental to Manulife's financial condition.

Mr. Hardy lowered his earnings estimate for second quarter of 2009 by more than 40% to $1 a share from $1.83 over concerns that investment gains from rising stock markets would likely be gobbled up by reserve adjustments.

Toronto-based Manulife was hurt by turmoil on equity markets this year as investment values plummeted. With the recent market recovery the company's position improved, but on Friday afternoon it warned investors not to get carried away.

"Manulife has enjoyed great benefit from strengthening equity markets but, at this time, expects a significant portion of this could be offset by actuarial reserve increases," it said in a statement.

Manulife also announced it had received an enforcement notice from the Ontario Securities Commission regarding disclosure of risks the company faced with respect to various guaranteed investment products that it sells.

Manulife, which believes it did nothing wrong, said the enforcement notice reflects a "preliminary" conclusion on the part of OSC staff and that it will have an opportunity to respond before the regulator decides whether to launch proceedings.

Manulife had limited hedging on its guaranteed variable annuity and segregated fund products to protect against market downturns. At issue is the level of information about its hedging strategy the company disclosed to investors.

There is a wide range of opinion on Bay Street, but according to Scotia Capital's Mr. MacKinnon Manulife has "disclosed more than most lifecos on these risks."

Indeed, "receipt of such notice is not a disclosable event, and it could very well be that other companies have received such notices," the analyst said in a note to clients.
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17 June 2009

Review of Banks' Q2 2009 Earnings

  
Scotia Capital, 17 June 2009

Bank Earnings Near Cyclical Bottom

• Canadian banks reported strong second quarter earnings, handily beating consensus estimates. Earnings were driven by robust wholesale banking earnings, loan repricing, and securitization revenue that offset higher credit costs. Mark-to-market writedowns declined and show signs of abating further.

• Operating return on equity was 17.1% despite 83 basis points (bp) in loan losses and some dilution from common equity issues. Bank reported return on equity on a fully loaded basis remained in double digits at 10.6%.

• Second quarter operating earnings declined 7% year over year (YOY) and 10% sequentially, representing the sixth straight decline in quarterly earnings on a YOY basis. We expect the third quarter of 2009 earnings to be the low of the cycle, with quarterly earnings momentum starting to turn positive in Q4/09 and Q1/10.

• Bank second quarter earnings provide some basis for optimism that earnings are near the cyclical bottom based on an improved outlook for the net interest margin, credit cost absorption, and the expected sequential improvement in wealth management earnings based on the major market rebound.

• We believe that BMO reported the strongest results this quarter, followed by NA, BNS, RY, and TD, with CM the weakest. In terms of domestic banking earnings including wealth management, BNS and NA were the most resilient, declining 1.2% and 2.6%, followed by BMO, TD, and RY declining 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9%, respectively, with CM the major outlier, down 25%.

Wholesale Earnings Robust

• Wholesale earnings remained extremely robust, driven by strong trading revenue. Trading revenue this quarter at $2.8 billion was down from the all-time record $3.4 billion level in Q1/09 but remained very high, reflecting the Canadian banks’ preferred counterparty status, OTC spreads, and structural expansion in their trading books and platforms. The trend of growing earnings power from wholesale banking is very much intact. The reduction in capacity in wholesale and the major dislocation in this market has created significant opportunities that continue to be more and more evident. There is a structural shift, not just cyclical.

Net Interest Margin Resurgence

• The resurgence in the banks’ net interest margin (NIM) may represent a significant inflection point for the bank group. The banks’ net NIM received some relief in the second quarter, driven by historically high wholesale spreads, aggressive loan repricing (liquidity/risk premium), and steeper yield curve.

• The retail NIM declined 10 bp YOY, with mixed results among the individual banks sequentially. Retail NIMs were positively impacted by securitization, variable rate loan repricing, and attractive transfer pricing, which helped offset the negative impact from the low level of interest rates. BMO, TD, and BNS retail NIMs improved sequentially by 17, 12, and 6 bp, respectively. Conversely, NA, RY, and CM NIM declined 6, 3, and 3 bp, respectively. It appears that the retail NIM has bottomed for some banks and is bottoming for others, after declining for the past eight years. Further margin expansion is likely, aided by the continued repricing of the loan book. The improved outlook for both the overall NIM and retail NIM should be very supportive to earnings going forward.

Higher Capital – Lower Mark-to-Market

• Tier 1 capital ratio for the bank group was an all-time record of 10.7%, driven by internally generated capital, modest capital raises, and some RWA relief via the higher Canadian dollar. TCE to RWA increased to 7.6%. We also expect book value gains as a result of a reduction in the unrealized AFS losses in OCI in the third quarter based on the significant improvement in corporate bond spreads.

• Mark-to-market writedowns were $1.2 billion after tax in the second quarter, down from the $2 billion level in the two previous quarters. We expect mark-to-market losses to continue to decline given the rally in the LCDX Index, tighter CDS spreads, and the significant improvement in corporate bond spreads.

Credit Losses Peaking

• Loan loss provisions (LLPs) this quarter increased to $2.5 billion or 83 bp of loans, 7% higher than our forecast. LLPs are 2.2x higher than a year earlier and reflect the sharp deterioration in the economy and credit quality. Bank LLPs typically peak one year after the economy bottoms. However, with the sharp economic decline in Q1/09 and the havoc that the capital markets debacle had on the real economy, it seems that peak loan losses in this credit cycle are happening sooner. If gross loan formations continue their modest decline experienced in Q2/09 over the next several quarters, this bodes well for credit losses.

• LLPs were mixed among the banks, with NA provisioning remaining low and BMO LLPs actually declining (may have peaked in Q3/08) and BNS, CM, RY, and TD all up sequentially. We believe BMO’s loss ratio may have peaked, with RY, TD, and CM nearing their peak and BNS likely to increase moderately.

• LLPs in the second quarter increased 18% sequentially to $2,470 million or 83 bp. The loss ratio varies, with RY and TD at highs of 107 and 93 bp followed by BMO and CM at 85 and 83 bp, with BNS at 60 bp and NA a continued outlier at 30 bp.

• The highest loss ratios were in the International business segment with BNS Mexico loss ratio of 434 bp, RY U.S. at 308 bp, and TD U.S. at 127 bp. Loan losses in these businesses for BNS, RY, and TD represented 21%, 38%, and 37%, respectively, of the total quarterly loan loss provisions.

• In terms of domestic banking, the lowest loss ratios are being recorded by BMO, BNS, and NA in the 33 to 38 bp range. CM has the highest loss ratio at 73 bp due to heavy weighting in credit cards, with RY and TD at 59 and 52 bp, respectively.

• In terms of wholesale loan loss provisioning as a percentage of total provisioning, for BMO, BNS, CM, NA, RY, and TD they comprise 12%, 25%, 5%, 17%, 19%, and 11%, respectively.

• Gross impaired loans increased 17% sequentially to $14.3 billion, but remain at a relatively low level compared to past cycles at only 1.2% of loans. This ratio is expected to increase further, but to remain significantly below past historical peaks (see our report titled The Credit Cycle, May 2009). Gross impaired loan formations remained high at $5.2 billion but were lower than in the previous quarter. If gross impaired formations continue this trend, it will be positive for the outlook for loan losses.

• We have increased our 2009 loan loss provision forecast to $9.7 billion from $8.5 billion based on the acceleration of provisioning due to the sharpness of the economic decline. However, our 2010 loan loss provision forecast is essentially unchanged at $10.6 billion or 0.78% of loans.

Earnings Power – Dividend Increases

• In summary, we believe second quarter earnings are reflective of bank earnings power and their ability to absorb credit losses and mark-to-market writedowns. The outlook for earnings, with the possibility of net interest margin resurgence, disappearing mark-to-market writedowns, and eventually lower credit costs, is quite powerful. Canadian banks are well positioned to take advantage of the fallout from the global banking crisis. They have significant operating leverage going forward, with revenue growth opportunities as a consequence of banking capacity reduction at the same time they are able to take advantage on the costs side by reducing operating and labour costs. In addition to strong operating leverage, bank capital is worth more, and banks are starting to get paid a major liquidity/risk premium (repricing of loan book) that is higher than in previous cycles. Thus, strong underlying earnings and high capital positions should be conducive to future dividend increases that could occur as early as the fourth quarter of 2009 for select banks.

• The market’s hysteria about the need to raise or preserve capital and the possibility of dividend cuts has reversed itself dramatically. The capital conundrum going forward is likely to be: what are the banks going to do with all that capital? We believe banks have the ability to easily run their Tier 1 capital ratios up to the 12% to 14% range.

• We are a major proponent of bank leadership signalling confidence in their business models to the market by rewarding shareholders with modest dividend increases early. A 5% dividend increase in Q4/09 would consume an insignificant amount of capital but provide a strong signal that would serve to further differentiate Canadian banks from their global peers. Canadian banks have a stellar record of increasing dividends over the past 50 years, with both BNS and TD actually increasing their dividends in fiscal 2008. Banks that are able to increase their dividends through a global crisis would be a powerful statement, but it does require conviction.

P/E Multiple Recovery

• Bank P/E multiples have recovered from valuation contagion that was aided by aggressive selling and the agents of fear. Bank P/E multiples have rebounded to 10.5x from the 6.0x low reached in late February. The current P/E multiple is now more in line with recent past cycle lows. We estimate the valuation contagion overshoot was three to four multiple points. We believe fundamentals support significantly higher valuation, and the market seems to be refocusing on fundamentals. We believe the market is starting to look at earnings power and P/E multiples for valuation versus market to tangible book.

• We continue to expect bank P/E multiples to expand through 2012, similar to that experienced post the 2002 cycle. We expect bank P/E multiples to expand back to 14x in the next few years and eventually reach 16x. Thus with P/E multiple expansion and bank earnings bottoming, this bodes well for continued strong share price gains over the next several years.

Bank Rally – Positive Outlook

• The major bank rally in Canadian bank stocks has happened at breathtaking speed, with the bank group increasing 72% in three months off their February lows. Bank stocks are now significantly outperforming the market with gains of 28% year-to-date versus the market being up 19%.

• It is natural or reasonable to expect a bank share pullback based on the strength of the rally or at least some retracement on a technical basis. However, if we look at the underlying earnings power and valuation, which remains compelling despite the rally, we remain overweight the bank group.

• Bank dividend yields, although down from their lofty heights, are very high at 4.8% and remain in a strong buy range against government bonds or the equity markets. Bank dividend yield relative to 10-year Canada bonds is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

• In conclusion, Canadian banks are well capitalized with high-quality balance sheets, a diversified revenue mix, a solid long-term earnings growth outlook, low exposure to high risk assets, and compelling valuation on both a yield and P/E multiple basis. Remain overweight the bank group.

• We have a 1-Sector Outperform rating on Royal Bank, with 2-Sector Performs ratings on NA, BMO, BNS, LB, and CWB and 3-Sector Underperform on TD and CM. Our order of preference continues to be biased towards strong wholesale banks with wealth management earnings momentum expected to pick up. Our order of preference is RY, NA, BMO, BNS, CWB, LB, TD, and CM.
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BMO Capital Markets, 2 June 2009

Operating earnings for the bank sector fell 6%, slightly more than the 5% we estimated. Reported earnings for the banks were much weaker than expected, due to another round of asset writedowns and restructuring charges. In response to weak results and price appreciation, we have trimmed our bank weight by 1%.

Ian de Verteuil downgraded CIBC to Underperform. Q1 earnings were weaker than expected, due to larger than expected charges, and the mix of operating earnings was skewed toward low multiple wholesale earnings. Investors will likely remain on the sidelines until there is a cleaner record of profitability or closure on the structured credit front. We have shifted most of our CIBC holdings into larger positions in Royal Bank and National Bank, both of which exceeded our expections on Q1 earnings.
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TD Securities, 1 June 2009

Our Views Largely Unchanged Post Quarter - Market-Weight

• Comfortable with Market-Weighting - we see fair returns from here. Following some volatility, the group ended earnings season largely unchanged. We shifted to Market-Weight down from Over-weight on May 8 and remain comfortable with that stance. We see 10-15% average total returns across the group on 12-months.

• Key themes as expected. Trading/Capital Markets revenues were generally strong across the group and in a number of cases masked continued moderation in key operating trends (i.e. volume growth/revenue) and further credit deterioration. Margins were mixed across the names, but commentary suggests that asset repricing and improved funding situation should begin to help restore NIMs.

• Credit deteriorating, but not exploding. Credit conditions and PCLs deteriorated only slightly worse than our expectations while a number of banks made efforts to stay ahead of the curve by building general/sectoral reserves. Credit headwinds should intensify through 2H09 (peaking in 1H10), but we remain comfortable with our standing view that the cycle will ultimately prove manageable.

• Minor changes to our outlook. We made a handful of changes to our estimates. However, on balance we continue to expect a fairly modest 2H09 with easing revenue trends and rising PCLs. We see room for slight growth/recovery in 2010 as PCLs peak, volumes recover and margins firm.

• We moved to the sidelines on CIBC. We downgraded CIBC to HOLD from Buy on Friday, May 29. We still believe progress is being made improving the fundamental business model. However, consistent retail delivery remains a near-term challenge just as rising credit costs loom. At these price valuations/levels we need to be sensitive to these concerns.

• Scotia and TD delivered and hold good outlooks. Both banks delivered decent quarters (broadly inline with our expected themes) and maintain, in our view, solid medium-term prospects.

• More to follow. We will publish our complete Quarterly Key Trends report in the coming days.
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Financial Post, 2 June 2009

Scotia Capital took its turn at bat Friday, analyzing second-quarter results from National Bank, CIBC and TD Bank.

Here's a collection of Scotia Capital analyst Kevin Choquette's findings, released Monday.

For CIBC, Mr. Choquette found retail market earnings to be "disappointing" after dropping 21% from the same time last year.

Loan loss provisions and impaired loan formations both increased in the quarter as well.

However, CIBC World Markets earnings rose to $203-million from $80-million a year earlier as the brokerage firm recently took over top trader spot from TD Securities.

TD had held top spot every month since 2003.

Mr. Choquette's 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates remain the same at $6 and $6.30 per share each, and he is keeping CIBC at Sector Underperform while maintaining a 12-month share price target of $68.

The picture at National Bank and TD Bank appears to be rosier as both are considered "wholesale strong" by Scotia.

A 9% increase in operating earnings to $1.53 per share at National Bank is above Mr. Choquette's estimated $1.30 per share, driven by "extremely strong" trading revenue from fixed income.

And TD Bank's overall results and securitization revenue helped offset a spike in U.S. loan losses, as reported a better-than-expected 7% dip in operating earnings.

National Bank also picked up $100-million of securitization revenue in the quarter, up from $58-million the previous year, a 17-cent per share gain.

Mr. Choquette is keeping National Bank's Sector Perform rating, noting "relatively low credit risk" and solid relative retail momentum.

He has also upped TD's 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates to $5 and $5.40 per share from $4.85 and $5.10 per share, but Scotia's share price target of $60 remains static and TD will keep its Sector Underperform.
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16 June 2009

Sun Life's UK Acquisition Adds to Existing Run-off Operations

  
Scotia Capital, 16 June 2009

• Sun Life is buying Lincoln's U.K. operations for C$359 million cash.

Implications

• Virtually all of what Sun Life picks up is a runoff block of individual insurance and annuity policies, with nearly £4B of assets, about 60% of the size of Sun Life's current U.K. runoff business (£6.5B of assets, about 8% of SLF's bottom line).

• Sun Life says it's $0.08-$0.10 per share accretive in 2010, which implies the ROE on the Lincoln block of runoff business is a profitable mid-to-high teens, (1. Lincoln, in need of capital, was a bit of a desperate seller, shedding non-core. 2. runoff business, versus ongoing business, can be profitable to a lifeco since there are no commissions and other selling xpenses, and 3. SLF will likely benefit from synergies in combining two runoff operations together).

• Cash for deal might come out of holdco, but if it came out of Sun Life's operating life companies the impact on capital is an immaterial three to five points on the company's MCCSR.

Recommendation

• Good small tuck-in deal. Sun Life's likely not done buying. Reiterate 2-Sector Perform.
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10 June 2009

Canadian Lifecos Less Exposed to CRE & Commercial Mortgages than Peers

  
Scotia Capital, 10 June 2009

• There is no doubt that commercial real estate (CRE) is increasingly becoming an issue for all financial services companies. As well, but perhaps not necessarily to the same degree, commercial mortgages and commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) are potential concerns.

• With significantly less exposure, we believe the Canadian lifecos look very good relative to their peers, namely U.S. lifecos and Canadian banks, with respect to these concerns.

Recommendation

• Not only are the Canadian lifecos significantly less exposed than their peers, but at under 9x 2010E P/E (GWO is 8.8x, IAG is 7.7x, MFC is 8.7x and SLF is 9.5x), they are also much more attractively priced. The Canadian lifecos trade at a 20% discount to P/E ratio (consensus 2010E) of the Canadian banks, versus their long-term average of a 2% premium.
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Financial Post, 8 June 2009

The news on Friday that job losses in the U.S. are declining at a smaller pace than expected is good for stocks and even better for Canada's life insurance companies, says Desjardins Securities analyst Michael Goldberg.

"With job losses getting smaller and doing better than consensus forecasts, investors are likely to view the jobs data as one of the 'green shoots' they have been looking for that signal pending economic recovery and contribute to improved investor confidence which has driven the stock market recovery since early March," said Mr. Goldberg in a note to clients. "We view this as particularly good news for lifecos,"

He noted that since March 9, when the current rally in North America began, Canadian stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks, Canadian banks have outperformed the market and Canadian lifecos have outperformed the banks.

The catalyst for the banks has been reduced fear surrounding potential dividend cuts, Mr. Goldberg said. Meanwhile life insurance companies owing to their higher beta, have benefited simply from the rally itself.

"What is good for stocks generally is even better for lifecos," he wrote, adding Manulife remains the most sensitive of the lifecos to stock market performance.

Mr. Goldberg was quick to remind clients, however, that while job losses may be moderating, there are now 5.9 million fewer people employed (4.3%) than at the cycle peak 16 months ago.

That means less income to spend, and people, businesses and banks are still vulnerable to bankruptcies, he wrote.
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01 June 2009

RBC Q2 2009 Earnings

  
• CIBC World Markets raises target price from $44 to $47
• Desjardins Securities cuts target price from $50 to $46.50
• Dundee Securities raises target price from $36 to $38
• Genuity Capital Markets cuts target price from $56 to $54
• National Bank Financial raises target price from $43 to $44
• Scotia Capital has a target price of $58
• TD Securities has a target price of $43
• UBS Securities raises target price from $45 to $46
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Scotia Capital, 1 June 2009

Q2/09 Solid Operating Earnings - Wholesale Stellar - Higher Credit Losses

• Royal Bank (RY) reported a decline in cash operating earnings of 6% to $0.97 per share, in line. Operating ROE was 18.6%.

• Reported cash earnings were $0.66 per share including net charges of $0.31 per share comprised of: writedowns of $556 million ($296 million after-tax or $0.21 per share) and a general provision of $223 million ($146 million after-tax or $0.10 per share). Reported accrual earnings were a loss of $0.07 per share including a goodwill impairment charge of $1.0 billion after-tax or $0.71 per share (previously announced) and amortization of intangibles of $55 million ($43 million after-tax or $0.03 per share).

• Earnings were driven by very strong earnings from RBC Capital Markets, which increased 80% to $559 million (excluding writedowns) due to very strong trading revenue. Canadian Banking earnings declined 4% to $582 million from a year earlier due to net interest margin decline. Insurance earnings were $113 million, an increase of 9%. Wealth Management earnings declined 25% to $139 million.

• U.S. & International Banking recorded a loss of $97 million due to the continued high level of loan losses. LLPs increased sequentially to $289 million from $200 million in the previous quarter and from $91 million a year earlier.

Canadian Banking Earnings Decline 4%

• Canadian Banking earnings declined 4% to $582 million from $606 million a year earlier due to a decline in retail net interest margin and higher loan loss provisions.

• Revenues in the Canadian Banking segment increased 3.7%, with non-interest expenses increasing 1.3% from a year earlier, resulting in positive operating leverage of 2.4%.

• Loan loss provisions (LLPs) increased 30% to $351 million from $270 million in the previous quarter, reflecting portfolio growth and higher impaired loans.

Canadian Retail NIM Declines 22 basis points

• Retail NIM declined 22 bp year over year and 3 bp sequentially to 2.78%.

Insurance

• Insurance earnings were $113 million versus $112 million in the previous quarter and $104 million a year earlier.

Wealth Management Earnings Decline 25%

• Wealth Management cash earnings declined 25% to $139 million from $186 million a year earlier due to large declines in AUM.

• Revenues were flat year over year with operating expenses increasing 11.6% for negative operating leverage of 11.6%.

• U.S. Wealth Management revenue improved 11%, with Canadian Wealth Management declining 16% and Global Asset Management revenue increasing 3%.

• Mutual fund revenue declined 19% from a year earlier to $311 million. Mutual Fund assets (IFIC) declined 10% from a year earlier to $97.8 billion including PH&N. U.S. & International Banking Remains in Loss Position

• U.S. & International recorded a loss of $97 million versus a loss of $22 million in the previous quarter and net income of $57 million a year earlier. The loss position was driven by the continued high level of LLPs. LLPs were $289 million in the quarter, up from the Q1 level of $200 million and up significantly from $91 million a year earlier. LLPs are at an extremely high level of 3.16% of loans and are expected to remain high throughout the remainder of 2009 and 2010.

• The weakness in the portfolio is primarily related to the bank's US$2.6 billion U.S. residential builder finance portfolio, of which 40% of loans are impaired. Our rough estimate is that RY has been taking $150-$200 million in provisions against this portfolio quarterly.

The run rate may not subside in the near term but we do not expect significantly more aggressive provisioning.

• Net interest margin increased 17 bp from a year earlier and 27 bp sequentially to 3.67%.

RBC Capital Markets Earnings Stellar

• RBC Capital Markets earnings increased 80% (excluding writedowns) to $559 million, up from $310 million a year earlier due to very strong trading revenue.

Underlying Trading Revenue Very Strong at $1.4 Billion

• Trading revenue was very strong at $1,414 million (excluding writedowns) versus a record $1,748 million in the previous quarter and $786 million a year earlier.

• Trading revenue was extremely high in all products: interest rate, credit, equities, and foreign exchange.

Capital Markets Revenue

• Capital markets revenue was $568 million versus $520 million in the previous quarter and $472 million a year earlier.

• Securities brokerage commissions increased 15% to $355 million from $309 million a year earlier, with underwriting and other advisory fees at $213 million, increasing by 31%. Security Losses Negligible – Large Unrealized Deficit

• AFS security loss was $66 million or $0.03 per share versus a loss of $0.01 per share in the previous quarter and a loss of $0.01 per share a year earlier.

• Unrealized security surplus was a deficit of $1,786 million versus a deficit of $2,163 million in the previous quarter.

Securitization Revenue Increases

• Securitization revenue increased to $354 million or $0.16 per share versus $227 million or $0.10 per share in the previous quarter, adding $0.06 per share to earnings.

Loan Loss Provisions Increase

• Specific loan loss provisions (LLPs) increased to $751 million or 1.07% of loans from $598 million or 0.81% in the previous quarter and $349 million or 0.53% of loans a year earlier. LLPs in Canadian Banking increased 30% sequentially to $351 million from $270 million. LLPs in U.S. & International increased sequentially to $289 million (3.16% bp of loans) from $200 million. The bank recorded a $223 million general provision ($146 million or $0.10 per share). Total loan loss provisions were $974 million or 1.38% of loans.

• We are increasing our 2009 LLP estimate to $2,800 million or 0.97% of loans from $2,100 million or 0.70% of loans. Our 2010 LLP estimate is unchanged at $2,600 million or 0.86% of loans.

Loan Formations Decline QOQ

• Gross impaired loan formations declined to $1,800 million versus $2,648 million in the previous quarter but increased from $867 million a year earlier. Gross impaired loans increased 19% quarter over quarter (QOQ) to $4,217 million or 1.46% of loans versus $3,540 million or 1.20% of loans in the previous quarter.

• Net impaired loan formations increased to $1,467 million, up from $737 million a year earlier and from $1,134 million in the previous quarter. Net impaired loans increased to $1,341 million or 0.46% of loans.

Tier 1 Ratio Strong at 11.4%

• Tier 1 capital was strong at 11.4% versus 10.6% in the previous quarter and 9.5% a year earlier due partially to a 3% sequential decline in risk-weighted assets mainly from currency impact.

• Risk-weighted assets increased 7% year over year (YOY) to $265.6 billion. Market-at-risk assets increased a modest 2% YOY and 5% QOQ to $20.1 billion.

• The common equity to risk-weighted assets (CE/RWA) ratio was 11.2% versus 11.1% in the previous quarter and 9.5% a year earlier.

Additional Disclosure on High-Risk Assets

• The bank provided additional disclosure on its exposure to U.S. sub-prime CDOs of ABS, RMBS and U.S. insurance and pension solutions. The notional and fair value exposures to these areas as well as writedowns are detailed in exhibit 2. We believe that RY has a good handle on exposure and that cumulative and potential writedowns are manageable.

Recommendation

• We are reducing our 2009 earnings estimate to $4.15 per share from $4.25 per share due to a higher loan loss provision forecast. Our 2010 earnings estimate remains unchanged at $4.65 per share.

• Our 12-month share price target is unchanged at $58 per share, representing 14.0x our 2009 earnings estimate and 12.5x our 2010 earnings estimate.

• We maintain our 1-Sector Outperform rating on the shares of Royal Bank based on strength-of-franchise and operating platforms, growth prospects from RBC Capital Markets, recovery in Wealth Management and higher than bank group ROE.
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Financial Post, John Greenwood, 30 May 2009

According to Gord Nixon, chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada, the world that emerges when the current recession finally ends will be a much happier place for banks, with fatter margins, higher interest rates and less competition from the shadow banking system that in recent years has been muscling in on the lending business.

"I think you're going to see a lot of very positive things for the industry generally," said Mr. Nixon, commenting on a conference call after Royal reported its second quarter yesterday.

"You're going to have a repriced balance sheet and a much better pricing of credit. You'll see margin expansion because you'll naturally see that happen as interest rates start to move up. In addition to that, given all the things that have occurred in the marketplace, competitors have exited, particularly the shadow banking system, the pricing of assets has become more attractive."

But those happy days have not arrived yet. RBC yesterday posted its first lost since 1993 after taking a previously announced $1-billion writedown on goodwill associated with the declining value of loans held by its U. S. operations.

In the three months ended April 30, Canada's largest bank had a net loss of $50-million, or 7¢ a share, compared with a profit of $928-million (70¢) last year.

Excluding the goodwill charge and other one-time items, RBC came out ahead of analysts' expectations with a profit of 97¢ a share.

Royal was the last of the big six banks to post results and, as with its competitors, analysts were concerned about its exposure to the United States, where the economy is slowing more quickly than in Canada.

RBC, like Bank of Montreal and Toronto-Dominion Bank, has been expanding in the United States and in recent years has bought several banks in southeast states such as Alabama which are significantly exposed to the troubled real-estate market.

In April, Royal said it planned to take a $1-billion goodwill charge associated with those deals, but some analysts worry that given the state of the U. S. economy, there could be more writedowns to come.

"Trends continue to worsen," said Jim Bantis, an analyst at Credit Suisse, who noted that the bank's impaired loans had increased considerably over the first quarter and that loan-loss provisions had risen for the third consecutive quarter.

Mr. Nixon conceded that "the environment remains challenging," but said the bank's capital ratios are strong. RBC is prepared for a downturn, he said, and will emerge on the other side in a position to take advantage of the opportunities he expects to be there.

Mario Mendonca, an analyst at Genuity Capital Markets, said the crux of the problem is RBC's operations in the U. S. Southeast, where the housing-market meltdown has been particularly harsh, including the recently acquired AmSouth Bank and Flag Bank.

In the second quarter, RBC's U. S. operation had about US$3.3-billion of mortgages, US$4.6-billion of home-equity loans and a US$1-billion of loans to buy homebuilding lots.

In the event that the downturn in the United States is worse than expected, those assets could prove troublesome, Mr. Mendonca said.

"If U. S. unemployment moves higher, if you're going to see problems down the road, that's the stuff to be worried about," he said.

BMO and Toronto-Dominion both have U. S. branch networks, but most of their operations are not in states that have been hit hard by the housing meltdown.
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29 May 2009

TD Bank Q2 2009 Earnings

  
• BMO Capital Markets raises target price from $56 to $60
• Dundee Securities raises target price from $51 to $54
• Genuity Capital Markets raises target price from $60 to $61
• National Bank Financial raises target price from $50 to $55
• RBC Capital Markets has a target price of $75
• Scotia Capital has a target price of $60
• TD Securities raises target price from $59 to $62
• UBS Securities raises target price from $53 to $54
__________________________________________________________
Scotia Capital, 29 May 2009

Q2/09 Earnings Solid - Strong Wholesale

• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) reported operating earnings of $1.23 per share, slightly better than expected. Operating earnings declined 7% from a year earlier. ROE was 11.9% versus 15.3% a year earlier, which is expected to be a bank group low due to dilution from the Commerce Bancorp acquisition. However, return on risk weighted assets (RRWA) was solid at 2.09%.

• Incremental securitization revenue added $0.10 per share to TD earnings. Thus, excluding the incremental securitization revenue underlying earnings would be $1.13 per share versus operating earnings of $1.23 per share.

• Strong wholesale results and securitization revenue helped offset a decline in earnings in the US (spike in loan losses), flat earnings at TDCT, and weak wealth management earnings.

• Reported cash earnings were $0.82 per share including a $134 million after-tax or $0.16 per share loss on economic hedge related to reclassified AFS debt securities, $50 million after-tax or $0.06 per share restructuring charge related to Commerce Bancorp, $44 million after-tax or $0.05 per share loss in fair value of CDS hedging the corporate loan book, $39 million after-tax or $0.05 per share settlement of TD Banknorth shareholder litigation, and an increase in general allowance of $110 million or $77 million after-tax or $0.09 per share.

Canadian P&C Earnings Increase 1%

• Canadian P&C earnings increased a modest 1% to $589 million from $582 million a year earlier.

• Retail net interest margin increased 12 bp sequentially and decreased 2 bp from a year earlier to 2.94%.

• Revenues increased by 6.7% YOY to $2.3 billion, and expenses increased 4.4% to $1.1 billion.

• Loan securitization revenue was very high at $184 million versus $91 million a year earlier.

Card service revenue increased 31% YOY to $152 million.

• LLPs increased to $286 million from $266 million in Q1/09 and from $191 million a year earlier.

Total Wealth Management Earnings Decline 31%

• Wealth Management earnings, including the bank’s equity share of TD Ameritrade, declined 31% to $126 million.

Canadian Wealth Management Earnings Decline

• Domestic Wealth Management earnings declined 32% YOY to $78 million due to a significant decline in assets under management, lower average fees earned, and net interest margin compression.

• Operating leverage was negative 12.4%, with revenue declining 5.4% and expenses increasing 7.0%.

• Mutual fund revenue declined 23% to $164 million from a year earlier.

• Mutual fund assets under management (IFIC, includes PIC assets) declined 12% YOY to $51.9 billion.

TD Ameritrade – Earnings Decline 28%

• TD Ameritrade contributed $48 million, or $0.06 per share, to earnings in the quarter versus $77 million, or $0.09 per share, in the previous quarter and $67 million, or $0.09 per share, a year earlier. TD Ameritrade’s contribution represented 4% of total bank earnings.

U.S. P&C Earnings Decline Sequentially

• U.S. P&C earnings, which now includes the contribution from Commerce, declined quarter over quarter t $281 million, or $0.33 per share, from $307 million, representing 24% of total bank earnings. This compares with an earnings contribution of $130 million, or $0.17 per share, a year earlier before the Commerce Bancorp acquisition.

• Loan loss provisions in the US spiked 45% QOQ to $201 million or 1.24% of loans versus $139 million in the previous quarter ($78 million in Q4/08). Loan losses in the US have nearly tripled thus far in fiscal 2009.

• Net interest margin declined 4 bp from the previous quarter and 15 bp from a year earlier to 3.58% as the bank competes aggressively for deposits.

• The bank is expected to incur a US$50 million FDIC special deposit premium charge in Q3/09.

U.S. Platforms Combine to Represent 32% of Earnings

• U.S. P&C and TD Ameritrade contributed $329 million, or $0.39 per share, in the quarter, representing 32% of total bank earnings in the second quarter.

Wholesale Banking Earnings Strong

• Wholesale banking earnings were strong, increasing 86% to $173 million from $93 million a year earlier but were down from $265 million the previous quarter.

Trading Revenue – Remains Strong

• Trading revenue was very strong at $412 million versus $622 million in the previous quarter and $101 million a year earlier.

• Interest rate and credit trading revenue was very strong at $165 million versus a loss of $93 million a year earlier and a gain of $274 million in the previous quarter. Equity and other trading revenue declined to $93 million from $99 million a year earlier and from $171 million in the previous quarter. Foreign exchange products trading revenue increased to $154 million from $95 million a year earlier and $177 million in Q1/09.

Capital Markets Revenue

• Capital markets revenue was $374 million versus $337 million in the previous quarter and $332 million a year earlier.

Security Gains

• Security gains were a loss of $168 million or $0.13 per share versus a loss of $205 million or $0.16 per share in the previous quarter and a gain of $110 million or $0.09 per share a year earlier. The bank has exited its head office security portfolio, freeing up capital.

Unrealized Surplus – $75 million

• Unrealized surplus increased to $75 million from $47 million in the previous quarter and from $746 million a year earlier.

Loan Loss Provisions

• Specific LLPs increased to $546 million, or 0.93% of loans, from $232 million, or 0.43% of loans, a year earlier. TD increased general allowances by $110 million ($77 million after tax or $0.09 per share).

• We are increasing our 2009 LLP estimate to $2,100 million, or 0.85% of loans, and our 2010 LLP estimate to $2,300 million, or 0.89% of loans, from $1,800 million and $2,100 million, respectively, due to loan quality deterioration in the US.

Loan Formations Remain High

• Gross impaired loan formations increased to $927 million from $575 million a year earlier and from $990 million in the previous quarter. Net impaired loan formations increased to $633 million from $341 million a year earlier and $693 million in the previous quarter.

• Gross impaired loans increased to $1,875 million or 0.78% of loans from $1,543 million or 0.65% of loans in the previous quarter. Net impaired loans were negative $303 million.

Tier 1 Capital – Solid 10.9%

• Tier 1 ratio (Basel II) was 10.9% versus 10.1% in the previous quarter. Total capital ratio was 14.1% versus 13.6% in the previous quarter.

• Tangible common equity to risk weighted assets (TCE/RWA) was 9.0% versus 7.8% in the previous quarter, while common equity to RWA was significantly higher at 18.1% versus 16.7% in the previous quarter.

• Book value growth was 3% sequentially, aided by foreign exchange translation gains from the declining Canadian dollar more than offsetting AFS writedowns.

• Risk-weighted assets increased 12% from a year earlier to $199.7 billion as a result of the Commerce Bancorp acquisition, and declined 6% quarter over quarter.

Recent Events

• On February 6, 2009, TD announced that it would increase its holding in TD Ameritrade by 5% to 45% from approximately 39.9%. In September 2006, the bank entered into an agreement for a financial hedge for the potential purchase of 27 million shares of TD Ameritrade. On February 5, 2009, TD amended the hedge agreement to provide settlement in TD Ameritrade shares instead of cash. The cost of the financial hedge was US$515 million, or $19.07 per share, versus the recent price range of $12-$13 per share. TD expects no material impact to earnings or capital levels since the hedge, which was established in 2006, has been consolidated in the bank’s financial statements.

Recommendation

• We are increasing our 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates to $5.00 and $5.40 per share from $4.85 and $5.10 per share, respectively, due to improved net interest margin and stronger wholesale earnings.

• Our share price target remains unchanged at $60 per share, representing 12.0x our 2009 earnings estimate and 11.1x our 2010 earnings estimate.

• TD is rated 3-Sector Underperform.
;

Scotiabank Q2 2009 Earnings

  
• BMO Capital Markets raises target price from $35 to $37
• Desjardins Securities cuts target price from $45.50 to $41.50
• National Bank Financial raised target price from $34 to $38
RBC Capital Markets has a target price of $53
• TD Securities has a target price of $46
• UBS Securities raises target price from $40 to $42
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TD Securities, 29 May 2009

Q2/09: Weathering Downturn; Well Poised for Growth

Yesterday, the bank reported core cash FD-EPS of C$0.96 vs. TD Newcrest C$0.75 and consensus C$0.80.

Impact

Neutral. Helped by strong trading, the quarter was well through expectations on an adjusted basis. We are seeing clearer signs of credit deterioration (now including the wholesale book), but evidence suggests the bank continues to be pro-active in managing risk and building reserves. We remain comfortable that the platform will weather the downturn and it should emerge well poised for growth.

Details

Actually one of the best Domestic results. Potentially lost in the mix of yesterday's results, Scotia again turned in one of the best Domestic results of the group (see Exhibit 1). While suffering from the industry wide slowdown, we continue to view Scotia's domestic positioning as materially improved over the past year and becoming a strength going forward.

Keeping ahead of the credit curve. The much anticipated deterioration in the corporate/commercial books has now materialized in the reported numbers as Scotia Capital recorded its first significant PCL in recent memory. Overall, we continue to expect significant PCL growth through year-end. However, we continue to believe the team has been proactive in anticipating and managing its exposure and related reserves. Case in point, with the cover of strong capital markets results, the bank added to generals and established a sectoral related specifically to its auto exposure.

Weathering the downturn and well positioned for recovery. The current downturn hurts the bank's corporate credit exposure and International business. However, we believe management has been proactive in preparing for the cycle. We expect the bank to weather the current conditions and emerge well poised to capitalize on a recovery scenario benefiting from its strong wholesale lending presence and well positioned International platform.

Conference Call Highlights

• Cautious tone on acquisitions. Management downplayed interest in immediate term acquisitions, suggesting continued discipline in reviewing the ample potential targets, primarily in the International portfolio.

• Tax rate to ease. The quarter actually saw a slightly higher than expected tax rate of around 31%. Going forward it is expected to run closer to 21-24%

• Acceptable capital levels. While lower on an absolute basis versus peers, management feels the bank is comfortably capitalized relative to its risk and ongoing earnings/ROE prospects.

Results Highlights (year-on-year growth unless stated)

• Domestic. A relative bright spot again this quarter. The segment was flat year-on-year, with decent revenue growth (+5%) and good operating leverage offset by PCL growth (including general and sectoral reserve build). As we have seen elsewhere, Wealth Management had a difficult quarter.

• International. Decent revenue growth at +13%, but expansion/investment driven growth and higher credit costs crimped bottom-line which was roughly flat.

• Capital Markets. A strong quarter that was on par with the strength of Q1 helped by trading revenues, offsetting an uptick in credit costs as the segment saw its first meaningful PCL expense in recent memory at C$109 million in specifics (plus sectoral for a total of C$159 million) reflecting the impairment of a handful of credits largely related to U.S. real estate.

• Other/Corporate. Continues to reflect higher funding costs driving elevated losses and the reported write-down on AFS securities, but pressure eased over Q1/09.

Operating Outlook. Despite the beat on the quarter we are leaving our outlook unchanged. Specifically, we expect trading income to be less robust in back half of the year, loan volume growth to moderate and credit costs to remain elevated.

Segment Outlook. Lower trading revenues and continued PCL growth is likely to reduce Capital Markets income through 2H09. PCLs will also keep pressure on Domestic, where growth rates should weaken materially as the bank cycles 2H08 strength. International remains difficult to forecast (currency, PCLs, NIE etc, etc), but on balance we expect the contribution to ease through 2H09.

Credit Outlook. Based on Q2 developments, we expect to see credit to continue to deteriorate through the year and sustain significant PCLs. In particular, we are expecting further impaired development in the corporate portfolio. We maintain that overall, credit should be manageable in the context of the bank given decent reserves and ongoing earnings.

Capital Outlook. With ratios slightly below its peers, we expect Scotia to continue to manage capital judiciously. However, we believe management is not uncomfortable with where current levels stand and concerns of an equity raise now seem quite remote.

Justification of Target Price

Our Target Price reflects a discount to our estimate of equity fair value 12 months forward (based on our views regarding sustainable ROE, growth and cost of equity), implying a P/BV on the order of 2.25x.

Key Risks to Target Price

1) The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, 2) country and political risk in its international markets such as Mexico, 3) integration challenges associated with its recent and future acquisitions and 4) adverse changes in the credit markets, interest rates, economic growth or the competitive landscape.

Investment Conclusion

We remain comfortable that the platform will weather the downturn and it should emerge well poised for growth.
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Bloomberg, Sean B. Pasternak, 28 May 2009

Bank of Nova Scotia, the Canadian bank that’s expanded in about 50 countries, probably won’t make additional acquisitions amid the recession as it sets aside more money for bad loans.

“We have to be prudent in how we grow the bank,” Chief Financial Officer Luc Vanneste said today in an interview in Toronto. “In this environment, I think you’ll see more on the organic side than you will via acquisition.”

Scotiabank, which has spent about $4.2 billion on acquisitions in the last two years to expand in Peru, Chile and Thailand, will still look at deals, though “we have an onus to our shareholders to appropriately deploy the capital that we have,” Vanneste said.

The bank reported earlier today that second-quarter profit fell 11 percent after loan-loss provisions more than tripled. Net income in the period ended April 30 fell to C$872 million ($783 million), or 81 cents a share.

Vanneste said loan-loss reserves will probably rise until at least early next year.

“We see the world improving, but I think that we will still have several quarters of what I’ll call elevated provisions for credit losses,” he said.
;

CIBC Q2 2009 Earnings

  
• BMO Capital Markets cuts target price from $60 to $54
• Credit Suisse cuts target price from $49 to $48
• Desjardins Securities cuts target price from $66 to $62
• Dundee Securities cuts target price from $55 to $52
• Macquarie Securities cuts target price from $57 to $55
• National Bank Financial raises target price from $54 to $55
• RBC Capital Markets has a target price of $95 (yup, Andre-Philippe Hardy has a 12-month target price of $95 for CIBC)
• Scotia Capital has a target price of $68
• TD Securities cuts target price from $68 to $60
__________________________________________________________
Scotia Capital, 29 May 2009

Q2/09 Earnings - in Line - Underlying Weak

• CM reported a decline in cash operating earnings of 11% to $1.44 per share, in line. Earnings were driven by stronger wholesale earnings and high security gains. Operating ROE was 21.0%.

Implications

• Reported cash earnings were a loss of $0.21 per share, after net charges on structured credit, MTM on derivatives and other items of $1.65 per share.

• Earnings at CIBC Retail Markets were disappointing, declining 21% YOY due to a decline in retail net-interest margin and a rise in LLPs. CIBC World Markets earnings were $203 million, up more than double from a year earlier.

• AFS/FVO gains remained high contributing $0.32 per share to earnings.

• Earnings estimates and share price target unchanged.

Recommendation

• CM has not covered its common dividend in five out of the past six quarters. Maintain 3-Sector Underperform based on negative earnings momentum at CIBC Retail Markets.
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Bloomberg, Doug Alexander and Sean B. Pasternak, 25 May 2009

CIBC World Markets ousted TD Securities as the top equities trader for the first time in six years as Canadian banks use a rebound in trading to help replace profits lost to bad loans.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s investment bank was the top trader by volume on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the past three months, taking almost a fifth of the market in April, according to data from TMX Group Inc., the exchange owner. TD Securities had been the top trader every month since 2003.

Canadian banks, which begin reporting second-quarter results tomorrow, will probably post a surge in trading revenue as global markets recover from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Canada’s benchmark Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 7.2 percent in the quarter ended April 30, outpacing the 5.7 percent increase in the S&P 500 Index.

Trading fees at the six biggest banks will more than double to C$2.62 billion ($2.3 billion), said Sumit Malhotra, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Markets in Toronto.

CIBC, Canada’s fifth-biggest bank, hired three exchange executives, including former executive vice-president Rik Parkhill, as it ramped up electronic trading to win business from Toronto-Dominion Bank and other rivals.

“The placement of Rik gives them a definite inside edge in terms of TSX and how it trades,” said John Aiken, a bank analyst at Dundee Securities Inc. in Toronto. “This is a strategic move by CIBC and it effectively has taken place almost overnight.”

The surge won’t be enough to increase overall profits, which will plunge on higher provisions for bad loans and falling demand for credit in the country’s first recession since 1992, analysts said.

Canadian banks will report that profit before one-time items dropped 17 percent on average, the sixth straight quarterly decline, said Malhotra. Bank of Montreal, the No. 4 bank, is the first lender to report, at about 7:30 a.m. tomorrow.

Canadian Imperial is among the banks benefiting from the trading rebound, surpassing TD Securities in February, according to TMX data. Simone Philogene, a spokeswoman for Toronto- Dominion, declined to comment.

CIBC hired former exchange Chief Executive Officer Richard Nesbitt to head its investment bank in January 2008. Parkhill followed in August after the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange bought the Montreal Exchange derivatives market.

“If you look at who’s running the show, it makes obvious sense,” Genuity Capital Markets analyst Gabriel Dechaine said. “Having the exchange background, their view is very different from the traditional brokerage executives.”

CIBC is focusing on electronic trading for money managers and traders to reduce costs and exploit split-second price discrepancies. Those customers tap the Toronto exchange, and alternative trading systems such as Pure Trading and Chi-X Canada, as well as marketplaces in the U.S.

Toronto-based CIBC spent a decade building systems to take advantage of automated trading, which is gaining on the traditional block trading dominated by Canadian banks. Electronic trading accounts for 15 percent of volume on the Toronto exchange, up from almost nothing a year ago, according to TMX. Block trades are orders of 10,000 shares or more worth at least C$100,000.

“We adapted rapidly to the market structure changes that are under way in Canada and developed products and services that allowed our clients to trade more efficiently,” said Parkhill, CIBC’s head of cash equities. “The market is changing, and either you embrace change or you become a victim of it.”

Even with the gains, CIBC has the smallest trading business among the country’s six biggest lenders. The bank’s second- quarter trading revenue was about C$85 million, a 27 percent increase from the year earlier, according to Darko Mihelic, a CIBC bank analyst. Royal Bank of Canada, the biggest bank, will probably report revenue 10 times higher, he said. The revenue figures include fixed-income, currency and stock trading.

“The all-important question is how profitable is this trading for CIBC, and that’s yet to be seen,” Aiken said.

CIBC rose C$2.08, or 3.9 percent, to C$55.78 at 4:10 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange composite trading, leading a surge among Canada’s biggest banks. Bank of Nova Scotia rose 2.3 percent, followed by a 2.1 percent increase for Toronto- Dominion, a 1.7 percent rise for Bank of Montreal and a 0.95 percent gain for Royal Bank.

Trading gains won’t be enough to offset rising loan defaults among the country’s biggest banks with unemployment at a seven-year high of 8 percent.

Canadian banks may set aside C$2.26 billion for bad loans, more than double the amount from a year ago, according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian de Verteuil.

“We’re still nervous about that particular area, as unemployment is rising and consumers have pretty much maxed out their credit cards,” said John Kinsey, who helps manage about C$1 billion at Caldwell Securities Ltd. including bank shares. “It’s only going to get worse.”

Bank of Montreal may say that profit before one-time items fell 28 percent to 86 cents a share, according to de Verteuil.

Toronto-Dominion, Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC and National Bank of Canada report results May 28. Toronto-Dominion may say profit fell 11 percent to C$1.17 a share on lower asset- management fees, de Verteuil said.

Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada’s No. 3 bank, may say profit fell 10 percent to 87 cents a share on higher loan losses and a decline in asset-management fees, he said. Montreal-based National Bank may report per-share profit fell 14 percent to C$1.21 on higher trading and credit losses. Canadian Imperial’s profit probably fell 12 percent to C$1.43 a share on lower investment-banking earnings.

Royal Bank’s profit may be unchanged at C$1.05 a share, excluding $850 million in writedowns announced last month.
;

National Bank Q2 2009 Earnings

  
Scotia Capital, 29 May 2009

Q2/09 Better Than Expected - Wholesale Strong

• National Bank of Canada (NA) reported a 9% increase in operating earnings to $1.53 per share, above our estimate of $1.30 per share. Earnings were driven by extremely strong trading revenue, particularly from fixed income, as well as higher security gains and securitization revenue. Operating return on equity for the quarter was 19.4% versus 20.2% a year earlier.

Implications

• Operating earnings were boosted by larger securitization revenue in Q2/09 of $100 million versus $58 million a year earlier representing a $0.17 per share incremental gain. Thus underlying earnings prior to incremental securitization revenue were $1.36, still better than expected.

• Reported earnings were $1.41 per share including a $20 million after tax or $0.12 per share charge consisting mainly of losses on economic hedge transactions.

Recommendation

• We maintain our 2-Sector Perform rating, with NA having relatively low credit risk, solid relative retail momentum, and higher leverage to wholesale, which we believe has a favourable outlook.
;

27 May 2009

BMO Q2 2009 Earnings

  
RBC Capital Markets, Andre-Philippe Hardy, 27 May 2009

Q2/09 results exceeded our low expectations, led by lower than expected loan losses and taxes. Capital ratios were higher than estimated and core pre-tax, pre-provision profitability was in line with our normalized estimates for 2010.

• Forgetting expectations, results reflect a difficult environment, with a core ROE of 12.3% and reported EPS that remain below the dividend.

• Reported cash EPS of $0.63 were above our $0.46 estimate; many unusual items affected results and core earnings power was above $0.63 in our view (closer to $0.95-$1.00).

The reasons for our Outperform rating remain. The biggest worry of a few months ago (the dividend being cut given a high payout ratio) has become less of a worry as the economic outlook has improved and capital markets have shown signs of stabilization. BMO has more capital than other banks, which will allow it over time to recognize some of the losses it might have to take in its off balance sheet vehicles, in our view. The bank has one of the largest exposures to U.S. lending and gross impaired loans continued to climb in Q2/09, but other banks are also likely to see increasingly higher losses, as Canadian credit is deteriorating also and U.S. credit losses are spreading beyond early problem areas. As a result, credit is likely to be less of a negative for BMO relative to peers in 2009.

• Our 2009 core cash EPS estimate of $3.60 is up marginally from our prior $3.50 forecast. Our normalized 2010 EPS estimate (i.e., using normal loan losses rather than predicted) remains just above $5.50.

• As is our customary practice, we will undertake a full review of earnings estimates, ratings and target prices for all of the banks we cover as part of the industry review we will publish once all banks have reported. Directionally, the results were largely in line with trends we expected going into the quarter for the industry for (1) credit (pressure primarily from U.S. exposures, Canadian consumer deterioration, stable Canadian commercial exposures), (2) capital markets (YoY growth, QoQ decline), (3) wealth management (YoY declines). In Canadian retail banking, margins were higher than we had anticipated, but loan growth was lower.
__________________________________________________________
Financial Post, Scott Deveau, 27 May 2009

Despite beating the Street’s expectations this week with its first quarter result, Blackmont Capital analyst Brad Smith downgraded the stock to a “sell” Wednesday.

BMO reported adjusted diluted cash earnings per share of 93¢ Tuesday, 3¢ ahead of consensus.However, Mr. Smith warned of some issues going forward.

BMO’s ratio of allowances to trailing two-year net write-offs fell to 87% from 102% in the first quarter, their lowest level since 1996, he noted.

In addition, its structured investment vehicle exposure, which now totals US$7.9-billion in funding/commitments, could “very likely pressure earnings and capital in the coming quarters, as assets are currently valued at a US$1.9-billion discount to commitments," he said.

The recent outperformance of the bank’s share price also has it trading at 6% premium to its peers, and its highest level since October 2007.

“Based on its premium valuation, ongoing SIV exposure, and the inadequacy of the bank’s allowance levels, we are reducing our investment recommendation on BMO,” Mr. Smith said.

He maintained his $32 price target, but reduced the stock’s rating from a “hold” to a “sell.”
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19 May 2009

Preview of Banks' Q2 2009 Earnings

  
Scotia Capital, 19 May 2009

Banks Begin Reporting May 26

• Banks begin reporting second quarter earnings with Bank of Montreal (BMO) on May 26, followed by Laurentian Bank (LB) on May 27, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), National Bank (NA), and Toronto Dominion (TD) on May 28, Royal Bank (RY) on May 29, and Canadian Western (CWB) closing out reporting on June 4. Scotia Capital’s earnings estimates are highlighted in exhibit 1, consensus earnings estimates/target prices in exhibit 2, and conference call information in exhibit 4.

Moderate Negative Earnings Momentum – Solid Profitability

• We expect second quarter operating earnings to decline 8% year over year due to an expected doubling of loan loss provisions and lower retail net interest margin. Loan loss provisions are expected to increase to $2.3 billion or 0.71% of loans for the quarter versus $1.1 billion or 38 basis points (bp) a year earlier. The retail net interest margin is expected to decline to the 2.50% range from 2.83% a year earlier.

• Operating return on equity is expected to be 16.1% for the second quarter, down from 19.9% a year earlier. TD’s return on equity has dropped significantly post the acquisition of Commerce Bancorp to 13.2% in Q1/09 down from 19.7% in Q1/08 and 20.6% in fiscal 2007. TD’s return on risk-weighted assets remained relatively high, but its ROE has meaningfully lowered the overall bank group’s return on equity.

• High loan loss provisions and retail margin pressure are expected to be partially offset by a substantial improvement in the wholesale net interest margin and the depreciation of the C$. The wholesale margin has widened significantly as measured by the prime one-month BA spread; as well, banks have been active in repricing their loan book.

• The retail margin pressure stems mainly from the low level of interest rates and the interest rate floor with respect to personal demand and notice deposits. Also, competition for retail deposits remains stiff, which really hasn’t shifted all that much. However, the repricing of some retail lending products is expected to partially offset some of the margin pressure, although we expect the asset repricing to lag the impact of the significant reduction in prime rate that will be in full force in the fiscal second quarter.

• Bank prime rate averaged 2.64% in the second fiscal quarter versus 3.65% in the first quarter and 5.37% a year earlier. The average prime rate is projected at 2.25% for the third fiscal quarter, assuming no further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. The low level of interest rates, we believe, represents the biggest risk to bank earnings over the next several years, especially to the retail-banking-dependent banks. The credit cycle will likely negatively impact earnings, but is very much anticipated by the market and we believe is manageable and perhaps more cyclical than the structural issue of low interest rates for any extended period of time.

• Reported earnings are expected to increase a modest 4%, or 43% excluding RY’s pre announced goodwill impairment charge, as mark-to-market (MTM) losses decline to a guesstimate of $1.9 billion after-tax ($0.9 billion ex RY’s goodwill impairment charge) versus $2.2 billion a year earlier.

• We are forecasting a 7% earnings decline in 2009 and a 7% increase in 2010. Return on equity is expected to be 16.9% in 2009 and 16.6% in 2010. Our earnings estimates, we believe, reflect recession level loan loss provisions (LLPs) (see our May 11 report titled The Credit Cycle).

• The fear about how safe Canadian bank dividends are seems to have passed, or at least subsided, as the market is now more balanced in looking at underlying fundamentals. The market, we believe, is shifting to a more fundamental approach with a focus on earnings power and P/E multiples as opposed to capital/solvency and market value to tangible book as a valuation matrix. The release of the much-feared Stress Tests results in the U.S. has calmed market fears. That is not to say that a number of global banking systems that have fundamental issues will not suffer some type of dilution in the near to medium term. However, the reduced fear about the collapse of the U.S. banking system has taken a lot of pressure off Canadian bank stocks that have been suffering from valuation contagion compounded by “agents of fear” and aggressive investor views that the Canadian system has massive leverage and that the only way to value a bank stock is market to tangible book.

• Bank stocks outperformed the TSX in calendar 2008 by a narrow margin and are outperforming by a wide margin thus far in 2009 recovering some of the underperformance from the 2007 commodity-led TSX.

• We continue to be proponents of earnings power and P/E to value bank stocks. The sustainability of bank dividends and the resumption of superior dividend growth will be a catalyst for significantly higher bank share prices.

• On a P/E multiple basis, the banks have bounced off the 6.0x bottom. We would have expected in the absence of valuation contagion for bank P/E multiples to have bottomed at 9.0x, similar to the Asian crisis. We continue to expect bank P/E multiple expansion through 2012, similar to that experienced post the 2002 cycle. We expect bank P/E multiples to expand back to 14x in the next few years and eventually 16x.

• Bank valuation remains compelling on both a dividend yield and P/E multiple basis despite the 54% increase in bank share prices since the February 23, 2009, bottom. Bank P/E multiples are slightly above 9.0x, with significant expansion expected. Bank dividend yields are 5.4% or 1.8x relative to the 10-year government bond yield, which is 5.3 standard deviations above the mean. This ratio peaked at the unheard-of level of 10.1 standard deviations above the mean.

• Canadian banks are well capitalized, with high-quality balance sheets, diversified revenue mix, a solid long-term earnings growth outlook, low exposure to high-risk assets, and compelling valuations on both a yield and P/E multiple basis. We remain overweight the bank group based on strong fundamentals and compelling valuations.

• We have a 1-Sector Outperform rating on Royal Bank, with 2-Sector Perform ratings on NA, BMO, BNS, LB, and CWB, and 3-Sector Underperform ratings on CM and TD. Our order of preference continues to be biased towards strong wholesale banks, with RY best positioned for growth. Order of preference RY, NA, BMO, BNS, CWB, LB, CM, and TD.

BNS – Scotiabank Mexico Contribution Declines

• Scotiabank Mexico reported Q1/09 consolidated net income of $43 million (MXN$488 million), a 53% decline from a year earlier and a 3% decline from the previous quarter. Revenue increased 2% from a year earlier, and operating leverage was positive 5%. Scotiabank Mexico’s contribution to BNS, after adjustments for Canadian GAAP, is $54 million or $0.05 per share versus $63 million or $0.06 per share in the previous quarter and $80 million or $0.08 per share a year earlier.

RY Announced US$850 Million Goodwill Impairment Charge

• On April 16, 2009, RY announced that it expects to record a US$850 million ($1,020 million or $0.72 per share) goodwill impairment charge on its International Banking segment in the second quarter ending April 30, 2009. The impairment charge is the result of the prolonged economic difficulties in the U.S., in particular the deterioration of the U.S. housing market, and the decline in market value of U.S. banks.

TD – TD Ameritrade Earnings

• TD Ameritrade (AMTD) reported a 26% decline in earnings to US$0.23 per share from US$0.31 per share a year earlier due to the weak net interest margin and a 17% decline in fee-based balances. Earnings were in line with consensus. TD Bank estimates TD Ameritrade’s contribution this quarter to be $48 million or $0.06 per TD share versus $0.09 per share in the previous quarter and $0.09 per share a year earlier. TD Increases Stake in TD Ameritrade by 5%

• TD announced that it will increase its holding in TD Ameritrade by 5% to 45% from approximately 39.9%. In September 2006, the bank entered into an agreement for a financial hedge for the potential purchase of 27 million shares of TD Ameritrade. On February 5, 2009, TD amended the hedge agreement to provide settlement in TD Ameritrade shares instead of cash. The cost of the financial hedge was US$515 million or US$19.07 per share versus the recent price range of US$12-$13 per share.
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Financial Post, 19 May 2009

The Canadian bank earnings season is on us once again, and UBS Securities analyst Peter Rozenberg is projecting a 20% decline in earnings per share compared to the same quarter a year ago, when the banks were enjoying a better operating environment.

"Green shoots aside, the economic outlook that underpins bank earnings has continued to deteriorate with more negative GDP, and higher unemployment," he wrote in a note to clients.

Mr. Rosenberg noted that loan pricing is increasing and funding costs have come down, but low interest rates continue to hurt margins. Another issue is provisions for credit losses. They will continue to increase, but Mr. Rozenberg thinks they should be largely discounted by the market already. He is predicting an 88% increase year-over-year.

On the positive side, he pointed out that the outlook for capital markets has improved because of all the industry consolidation, wider trading spreads and improved financial markets. He also wrote that wealth management revenues should improve because of rising fund inflows, and he expects the banks to demonstrate improved expense control.

On an individual basis, Mr. Rozenberg prefers Bank of Nova Scotia because of its "higher than average domestic growth, higher than average international growth, higher than average returns, the best leverage to higher [net interest margins], and potential for acquisitions." He also believes Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce continues to offer excellent value because of its high returns on equity (over 20%), and low risk.

He recently downgraded Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank based on their recent price appreciation.

"Following a 60% rebound, bank valuations appear closer to neutral," he wrote."
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Financial Post, Eric Lam, 13 May 2009

With Canada's big banks set to report their second quarter results later this month, Desjardins Securities sees another tough quarter for earnings as the economic slowdown continues.

Desjardins analyst Michael Goldberg expects earnings per share results from the Big Six to be down in 2009 and recover in 2010.

"But the outcome could be much worse in the event of our alternate, more severe credit cycle scenario," he said in a note to clients. "We remain concerned that investors would be deeply alarmed by the much higher level of [non-performing loan] formations under this scenario."

Mr. Goldberg acknowledges that there has been a widespread global rally between February and April, during which time Canadian bank stocks jumped 23.4%. So far in the month of May, banks are up 9%.

"A key reason for the increase in bank stock prices has been that the fear of potential dividend cuts has abated," he said.

For Mr. Goldberg, the real cause for concern is credit deterioration. With high unemployment levels, more bankruptcies and falling house prices, the credit environment in Canada and the United States will remain turbulent at least through 2010.

"It will get worse before it gets better," he said. Mr. Goldberg has developed two possible scenarios for non-performing loan formations. The first projects NPLs of about $10.4-billion or 0.83% of average loans in 2009 and about $7.8-billion or 0.61% in 2010. The second is substantially darker, suggesting $31.5-billion in NPLs (2.5% of loans) in 2009 and $16.2-billion (1.25%) in 2010.

However, NPL formation in Canada is still much better than in the United States, he said.

Overall, Mr. Goldberg sees the possibility of major differences beyond the second quarter of 2009 depending on how serious the credit downturn gets. For now, the strong rally from dividend confidence has convinced him to increase target prices for all banks in the Big Six except for the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Here's a summary of his recommendations:

• Bank of Montreal target price to $47.50 from $39; Hold-average risk
• Bank of Nova Scotia target price $45.50 unchanged; Top Pick-average risk
• CIBC target price to $66 from $59; Hold-average risk
• National Bank of Canada target price to $53.50 from $42; Hold-average risk
• Royal Bank of Canada target price to $50 from $41.50; Hold-average risk
• TD Bank target price to $65.50 from $54; Top Pick-average risk
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Financial Post, Eric Lam, 12 May 2009

It took a while, but one of Canada's most bearish anaylsts on banks is finally relenting and riding the valuation wave.

Sort of.

"For those who were smart enough not to listen to our advice, we do not believe that investors should take profits on bank shares quite yet," Dundee Securities analyst John Aiken wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "We advocate increasing exposure to the banks as a near-term trade."

Mr. Aiken, who maintains "sell" ratings on all major Canadian banks except for TD Bank and the National Bank of Canada (he's neutral on them) expects "reasonably strong" second-quarter results from Canadian financials thanks to the "rubber-stamp approval" of U.S. banks through the recent stress tests.

However, Mr. Aiken is still negative on banks long-term.

"The economy still sucks," he wrote. "Despite appearing to have the momentum of a runaway freight train, the rise of the Canadian banks will have to slow at some point."

Mr. Aiken warns that the economy is still weakening, and investors have not seen the full brunt of the U.S. and global recession.

As well, the operating environment for banks is undergoing a fundamental revision. On top of expected future regulations, banks will not be able to take advantage of revenue streams such as securitizations that were prevalent before the credit crisis, leading to lower profitability overall.

"Also, do not forget that the various forms of capital issued by the banks to prop up Tier 1 capital ratios reduces overall profitability to common shareholders," he wrote.

Investors should be wary of current valuation multiples for the Big Six, which are well above 10x in 2009 and 2010 consensus estimates, especially when the "sentiment pendulum" swings back in the other direction. Mr. Aiken reiterates his majority "sell" ratings for banks but suggests investors should wait in the near term before dropping banks from their portfolios.

"Did we mention that the economy still sucks?" he wrote.
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The Globe and Mail, Steve Ladurantaye, 12 May 2009

Desjardins Securities raised its target prices for Canadian banks Tuesday, forecasting a 10 per cent increase in profits in the coming year and declaring dividend cuts unlikely.

“Since February, bank stock prices have risen 40 per cent because the fear of dividend cuts has subsided,” analyst Michael Goldberg wrote in a note to clients. “Accordingly, we are increasing our target prices.”

He raised his target on Bank of Montreal by 21 per cent to $47.50, CIBC by 11 per cent to $66, National Bank by 27 per cent to $53.50, TD Bank by 21 per cent and Royal Bank by 20 per cent to $50. He left his target for Bank of Nova Scotia rated his top pick – unchanged at $45.50. He has “hold” ratings on the other banks.

Canadian banks have been punished since October, when the world's financial system was shocked by mounting losses and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The financial subindex on the Toronto Stock Exchange has rebounded 60 per cent from its March lows, but it is still 25 per cent below highs set in June.

Avenue Investment portfolio manager Paul Harris said it's too soon for investors to buy into the Canadian banks. The economy is still shedding jobs, losses are likely to increase and credit remains tight.

“This is a credit-driven recession, and you don't come out of that as easily as people seem to think,” said Mr. Harris, who owns both TD and Royal Bank in his portfolios. “To believe that the banks will all recover tomorrow is naive – after the last recession, the banks moved sideways for almost four years.”

Mr. Goldberg considered two scenarios when setting his target – the first was the 10 per cent increase in profits in 2009 compared to 2008. In his alternate scenario, bad loans would drive profit down 8 per cent compared to 2008.

“The probability of the base case or something close to it is still higher than the alternate scenario, but the probability of the alternate scenario is high enough, in our view, that it puts a lid on further improvement in relative yields,” he said. “Keep in mind that we see minimal prospects for dividend increases under our base case in the coming year and none under the alternate scenario.”

Plunging share prices had sent bank yields soaring, with Bank of Montreal's dividend yield near 11 per cent earlier this year as its shares bounced off a 52-week low of $24.05. They have since recovered to $43.95, bringing the yield in the 6.5 per cent range. Canadian banks traditionally yield closer 4 per cent.

Mr. Goldberg said the only bank likely to raise its dividend is TD, which he said could increase its annual payout to $2.48 from $2.44.

Earlier this month, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. analyst Andre-Philippe Hardy upgraded Canadian banks, despite his belief that loan losses will continue to deepen in 2009.

“The key to investing in bank shares is not to look at the immediate future for earnings but rather at whether the outlook for future earnings is improving – which we believe it is,” he said, as he estimated share prices could increase by as much as 80 per cent in the next two years.

Mr. Harris said the upgrades have been driven by the rapid appreciation of bank shares as investors anticipated a swift economic recovery, leaving the analysts in a difficult position as clients look to benefit from the runup.

“They are pretty much screwed,” he said. “People are so worried about jumping on, but as an investment, it still doesn't make any sense. They are issuing a tonne of equity, and their balance sheets aren't in great shape.”
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TD Securities, 8 May 2009

• We are now less enthusiastic on the group following a strong run. Fears of acute industry problems appear to have eased materially – and appropriately so in our view. In a strong tape, the stocks have rallied 60%+ off their troughs and are up nearly 25% YTD - delivering solid relative outperformance. We rolled forward our Target Prices and from current levels we expect more normal returns – on the order of 10-15% over the coming 12 months.

• Shifting to market weight and downgrading National Bank. Against these prospects, and facing ongoing operating challenges and lingering uncertainties, we are shifting to Market-Weight from our previous Over-Weight stance. We are also downgrading National Bank to Hold from Buy following its industry leading performance year-to-date.

• Shifting CIBC to Buy from Action List Buy – still a solid idea. We are taking CIBC off the Action List following 25% returns since early December, but it remains a solid idea in our view. We continue to view TD and Scotia as attractive ideas under a recovery scenario.

• Outperformance v LifeCos has been dramatic. The Large-Cap Canadian banks have dramatically outperformed the LifeCo space by some 30%+ over the past year. That said, we are maintaining our relative preference for banks in light of the standing industry concerns of our LifeCo analyst Doug Young.

• Q2 should continue to see softer earnings. We believe underlying trends remain under-pressure. Help from strong trading results again this quarter are unlikely to sway our view on the operating outlook.

Q1 reporting provided some relief for the group with better than expected results, helped by some fairly strong trading numbers. The stocks responded quite positively for the most part and, supported by recent easing of fears/uncertainty globally, they have outperformed in a strong equity market recovery. At current levels, we are now less enthusiastic about the group than we have been in recent months.

We believe the strong recovery (60%+ from the group’s February lows) and firmer valuations now reflect a much more balanced view of the group. Fears around things like massive write-downs, significant capital raises and industry wide dividend cuts appear to have subsided; appropriately in our view.

That said, we continue to view the current operating environment and outlook as quite challenging. A number of asset exposures remain under pressure, while most underlying business trends continue to moderate and a significant credit cycle is just beginning. Finally, risks and uncertainties for the industry globally remain pronounced.

We are shifting to a Market-Weight stance from our previous Over-Weight view. From current levels, we would expect total returns to be closer to a more normal 10%-15% range over the coming 12-months.

There is no change in our operating outlook or estimates. We still expect the group to weather the downturn relatively well and emerge in a strong competitive position. However, tough conditions will weigh on earnings, book value growth and further multiple expansion. This limits the prospect of further significant relative outperformance in the coming months in our view.

We expect tough conditions to be evident again in Q2 results with moderating trends in core banking operations, rising credit costs and likely further write-downs. We anticipate strong trading revenues may offer some coverage again this quarter, but we believe market expectations are more aware this time around and we remain ultimately critical of their sustainability and value to ongoing earnings.

With this report we are downgrading National Bank to Hold from Buy following its industry leading 50%+ appreciation year-to-date. We are also shifting CIBC to Buy down from Action List Buy following returns on the order of 25% since early December.

We continue to highlight CIBC as a solid idea in the current environment as 1) its retail operations continue to deliver reasonable earnings, 2) the bank continues to manage its risks/exposures and 3) CIBC looks to be relatively well positioned with respect to credit (notwithstanding its credit card exposures).

We also continue to view Scotia and TD as two high quality operating platforms both of which are well positioned to capitalize on an improving global growth outlook and credit cycle (which we expect to come into view in 2H09).

Notwithstanding the strong relative outperformance by the banks over the LifeCos, we are maintaining our preference as our LifeCo analyst, Doug Young, continues to note significant challenges including 1) equity market sensitivity/earnings volatility 2) underappreciated credit risk and 3) sensitivity to low interest rates.
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